Threats To North America:US Northcom and NORAD Commander

Admiral William Gortney,US Navy,commander US Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command,appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday,12 March,to submit the Command's fiscal 2016 budget request.Included with the request was an assessment of current and future threats to the continent.ADM Gortney said what is most concerning to him is the seams that exist between Northcom,Southern Command and Pacific Command;between US interagency partners and the combatant commands;between the US and partner nations;and seams within those nations.In these seams,people are moving drugs and money.They're moving products for profit through the seams.We need to close these seams,because if someone wants to do something that will cause great damage to the nation,that is where they will come.*
2.Homegrown violent extremists are using an effective and sophisticated social media campaign to stir up distrust and incite harm to American citizens.*
3.A cyber attack could directly affect critical infrastructure that I rely on to defend the nation,and that we rely on for our nation to operate.I see that as a significant threat.A cyber attack in Ottawa would take out the Northeast quadrant of our air defence sector.It would effectively be a mission kill.So it would not only affect my abiity to do my mission;more importantly,we as a nation rely on this same infrastructure to operate-whether it's banking,rail,aviation,power or movement of water.All of these things have critical infrastructure that we must have,and they need to be hardened against an adversary.Northcom is responsible for defending known networks and helping lead federal agencies in the aftermath of a cyber attack.
4.Russian heavy bombers flew more out of area patrols in 2014 than in any year since the Cold War.We have also witnessed improved interoperability between Russian long-range aviation and other elements of the Russian military,including air and maritime intelligence collection platforms positioned to monitor NORAD responses.Such patrols serve a training function for Russian air crews,but some are clearly intended to underscore Moscow's global reach and communicate displeasure with Western policies,especially those involving Ukraine.Russia is also progressing toward its gosl of developing long-range,conventionally armed cruise missiles with increasing stand-off launch distances on its heavy bombers,submarines and surface combatants.Should these trends continue,NORAD will face increased risk in our ability to defend North America against Russian air,maritime and cruise missile threats.
5.North Korea has successfully test-detonated three nuclear devices,and through its space program has demonstrated many of the technologies required for an ICBM that could target the continental United States.North Korean military parades have showcased the new KN08 road-mobile ICBM.When deployed,the system will complicate the US ability to provide warning and defend against an attack.
6.Iran has likewise committed considerable resources to enhancing its ballistic missile capabilities,and has already placed another satellite into orbit this year,usinga new booster that could serve as a demonstrator for ICBM technologies.
7.Sequestration poses the likeliest and most dangerous threat.It leads to a hollow force,slowing development of the US technological advantage that makes it possible to outpace future threats.It also affects missile defence,putting on hold the long-range discrimination radar;improvements to the advanced kill vehicle;and the multi-object kill vehicle of the US Ballistic Missile Defense System.It would hinder the United States' ability to outpace the growing proliferation of ballistic missiles.
7.The Arctic requires advocacy and partnerships from within and outside the Northcom area of responsibility as the region grows in importance to our national security over the next few decades.

The DOD Budget:Hard Times,Tough Decisions

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel presented the Pentagon's 2015 budget request to the media Monday.Next week,he will go before Congress with the plan.The proposal would shrink spending by more than 75 billion dollars over the next two years,in line with the recent agreement between Congress and the President to limit defence spending to 446 billion dollars over the next two years,cutting the Army by about 80,000 troops from 520,000 today to around 440,000.The Army National Guard and Reserve would take a 5% cut.Not since before World War II has the Army been this small.*
As we end our combat mission in Afghanistan,this will be the first budget that reflects that,Mr.Hagel said,in a world that is growing more volatile,more unpredictable,and in some ways more threatening to the United States.It is guided by an updated defence strategy focused on defending the homeland against all strategic threats.The Department of Defense will continue to shift its forces and focus to the Pacific and maintain its alliances.We must now adapt,innovate and make difficult decisions.*
As a result of large budget cuts,our future force will face additional risk.We chose to terminate or delay some modernisation programs.On March 1,2013,sequestration set in,costing us 37 billion last fiscal year on top of 487 billion in cuts required by a previous act.Two months ago,Congress provided some relief through 2015,but defence spending remains below the President's requests.
While DOD welcomes the measure of relief and stability,it still forces us to cut more than 75 billion dollars,and sequestration remains the law for 2016 and beyond.The military still faces significant modernisation and readiness challenges.Continued sequestration cuts would compromise our national security both over the short and the long term.It would result in a force that is not ready.The resulting force would be too small to implement the President's defence strategy.The proposal balances our national security with the need to be realistic about the budget.
We first focused on management costs.We are paring back contract spending.We cannot achieve our goals without another round of BRAC-base realignment and closure-for 2017.If Congress continues to block this,we will continue to reduce overhead,but this will not be enough.We have to carefully examine our force structure.Our recommendations favour a smaller and more capable force.They have preserved all three legs of the nuclear triad.The forces can project power over great distances and are well-suited to the strategy of rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific region.Special Operations forces for counterterrorism will grow to 69,700 personnel from 66,000 today.*
For the Air Force,we have protected the new bomber,the Joint Strike Fighter and the new refueling tanker.We will also ensure a robust and strong industrial base.We will retire the A-10 fleet,replacing them with the F-35 in the early 2020s.The A-10 cannot survive with more advanced air defence,and its age makes it more difficult to maintain.The Air Force will also retire the 50 year-old U-2 in favour of the unmanned Global Hawk.With its greater range and endurance,it is more effective.
If sequestration is reimposed,the Air Force will have to retire 80 more aircraft and slow down the JSF purchase,as well as take deep cuts to flying hours.*
The proposal will enable the Navy to maintain 11 carrier strike groups.If sequestration remains in 2016,the George Washington will have to be retired before its nuclear refueling.Under the proposal,half of the cruiser fleet will be laid up and modernised for greater capability and lifespan.Two destroyers and one attack submarine a year will continue to be produced.
As for the littoral combat ship,it will be capped at 32 ships instead of 52.I am concerned the Navy is relying too heavily on it.We need to closely examine whether it can operate and survive on its own.It would represent one-sixth of our Navy.We must have platforms that will operate in all environments.I have directed the Navy to design a new frigate/small surface combatant.*
The Marine Corps will draw down to 182,000 from 190,000.If sequstration resumes,it will have to go down to 175,000.We will devote about 900 Marines to embassy security.
The Army will terminate the ground combat vehicle program.I have directed the Army and Marine Corps for more realistic recommendations.
This force would be decisively able to prevail in a ground combat theatre,while actively supporting the Navy and Air Force in another theatre,Secretary Hagel promised.*
In sum,the proposed force would be able to fight 1.5 wars simaltaneously.The Air Force will retire its A-10 ground attack planes and U-2,but preserve its major fighter,bomber and tanker buys,as well as the Global Hawk unmanned surveillance aircraft.The Navy will keep 11 carrier strike groups,cut the littoral combat ship from 52 to 32,modernise its cruisers,and keep building two destroyers and one attack submarine a year,while also designing a new frigate/small surface comabatant.All three legs of the nuclear deterrant will be preserved:sea,air and land.Special Ops forces will grow,but the conventional Army and Marine Corps units will shrink.
As always,Congress must approve this proposed budget,which will probably not happen in total.More likely,bits and pieces of it will be approved over time with modifications.The rest will be delayed or abandoned.One thing is sure:the military will be changed over the next few years as the Afghan War ends and budget cuts are imposed.The question is,how orderly this will be,and hence how much damage will be done to national security.

VFW National Convention:Distinguished Guests,Sobering News

US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel addressed the Veterans of Foreign Wars national convention in Louisville,Kentucky Tuesday morning.Hagel,a double Purple Heart recipient and enlisted man Vietnam veteran,took note of the 60th anniversary of the Korean War armistice on July 27.It's an opportunity for the country to fully express its gratitude for your service and sacrifice,Secretary Hagel said. I grew up in small towns in Nebraska,where life revolved around the VFW and American Legion posts.I've been a VFW member for 45 years since I came home from Vietnam in 1968. The US is emerging from the longest period of sustained combat in our history in Iraq and Afghanistan.The world is complicated,and it's dangerous.America must have a strong,capable and ready military,but fulfilling that obligation will require us to realign and reshape in difficult budgetary times,prioritising our core mission of defending our country;maximising our combat power;and taking care of our military men and women past and present. The Department of Defense must set clear priorities within the sequestration realities of the largest reduction since the post-Korea drawdown.Sequestration is an irresponsible process and it is terribly damaging,but we cannot lead the DOD based on hope.We have to prepare an institution for whatever comes.Many DOD missions and capabilities are essential,but others are not. The President must be assured that the options we present to him are ready and real.In an era of reduced resources,every dollar we spend on large staffs and overhead are dollars not spent on our troops.If we are to preserve out decisive miltary edge,we must find savings everywhere in our budget.I expect these cuts to result in organisations that are more efficient and agile-but it will require far more than cuts. We've had to reduce,stop and defer training,maintenance and modernisation.These cuts have had,and are continuing to have,very damaging effects such as a shortage of training rounds;planes are not flying;ships are not sailing.Unfortunately,military readiness does not always have a vocal constituency,and you cannot buy back readiness.There is a cost in precious human lives to sending out a hollow force. DOD is not a corporation,and cannot be run like one.The cost of our decisions is how they have a real effect on human lives. Our people are under stress,and so are the institutions that support them.Our people have been pushed to,and beyond,the breaking point.They must have the same care at home they had on the battlefield.DOD and the VA are building a seamless system to ensure our veterans never again encounter the problems they are having now.We're making good progress;we're committed to do it.We will get through this,but only if we're prepared to make wise and difficult decisions,Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told the Veterans of Foreign Wars. Also present at the VFW convention was US Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Robert Papp,Jr.He received a VFW medal for his service and presented the organisation with a cheque for his own VFW membership dues.Admiral Papp cited the Coast Guard's history of bravery under fire as the nation's fifth member of the Armed Forces.Coast Guard members have received the Medal of Honor and the Navy Cross.It has 1700 of its men and women currently deployed overseas in Afghansitan,Kuwait,Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.The Coast Guard patrol boat squadron in Bahrain is securing the Northern Arabian Gulf,Admiral Papp noted.A Coast Guardsman was killed in 2004 by a terrorist bomb as he served alongside US Navy Sailors in a boarding party in the region.

Special Intelligence Briefing:DNI

Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon,said Lieutenant General James R. Clapper,Jr.,US Air Force retired,Director of National Intelligence.That would be decided solely by the Supreme Leader,Ayatollah Khamenei.We would only have a brief forewarning,General Clapper told the Senate Armed Forces Committee April 18.
Pakistan views India as their preeminent threat.They have lost thousands of troops in pursuit of militants,whose presence in Pakistan hasn't changed basically.
The Defense Intelligence Agency has a higher degree of confidence that North Korea can weaponise a missile than the rest of the intelligence community.We do not know if that would work.
I saw how little the DIA was devoting to terrorism when I was its director in the 1990s.I fear I've seen this movie before.
The Iranians are developing two systems that could have intercontinental capability.The sanctions on Iran are having a huge impact on their economy,but have not yet changed their policy.
In Sudan,a very high proportion of the population is young,unemployed males,susceptible to jihadism.This is also true in other African countries.
The sequestration is certainly consuming us,the capability.We collectively are gonna have to correct what people expect of the intelligence community,because it is not gonna be the same.
We won't know what we've missed until something blows up,as Senator Angus King(I-Maine) put it.
We are facing more threats now than at any time in the past fifty years,General Clapper believes.
General Clapper,72,served in the US Air Force from 1963-95 in various military intelligence capacities.The Vietnam veteran went on to head the Defense Intelligence Agency from 1992-95;and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency from 2001-05.He was Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence from 2007-10,when President Barack Obama appointed him Director of National Intelligence,the nation's senior intelligence official.
General Clapper was decorated with the Legion of Merit(3);the Bronze Star(2);the Air Medal(2);and the National Intelligence Defense Service Medal.He is also an Officer of the Order of Australia(Honorary).

Feeling the Impact:Sequestration and the Defence Industry

Drastic and arbitrary US budget cuts are hindering the defence industry in a big way.Sequestration is the single worst piece of public policy in my 35 years of experience,said Clay Jones,CEO of  leading defence contractor Rockwell Collins.We've laid off 150 in Iowa and the rest of the year will lay off another 150 throughout our enterprise.
That's just the tip of the iceberg.One of the biggest problems is,it is impossible to plan.2014 will be even worse.We already took 60 million in restructuring charges.We don't like it,but we're gonna manage well.
Our defence business went down 8% last year;it will go down another 10% this year.By 2015,however,our commercial business will grow 10%.There's a high demand for fuel-efficient aircraft.We're about 33-35% international.That will grow to over 40% by 2020.
We'll be paid eventually.The biggest impact will be on the cash flow.
We produce the helmet-mounted sight for the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter-the most Buck Rogers thing in the aircraft,so I think we're secure in that project.
Senator Ben Cardin,D-Maryland,said he doesn't expect any progress in resolving the sequestration issue.
Rockwell says the world's leading aerospace and defence companies rely on them for smart communications and aviation electronics solutions.Their products span displays,electronic warfare/intelligence,navigation and guidance,precision targeting and weapons,space components and other engineering applications.
Rockwell Collins,Inc(COL)

Joint Chiefs Paint Somber Picture of Sequestration

Members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff bitterly criticised the massive cuts the military will sustain in just a few weeks' time,should Congress fail to halt implementation of sequestration,or arbitrary huge budget cuts,on March 1.Appearing before the Senate Armed Forces Committee,the senior officers painted a bleak picture of a hollowed-out force and a grave threat to national security that Congressional inaction is already imposing on the armed forces and the nation.
Admiral Mark Ferguson,Vice Chief of Naval Operations,said the across the board budget cuts will immediately erode the readiness of the force.We will be compelled to lower our force levels.Our sailors and their families are exhibiting increased anxiety over this.We will make every effort to sustain sailor and family support programs.
On February 15,we will notify private shipyards to defer maintenance.Three carriers are already tied up and delayed.We effectively shut down four air wings on March 1.Our pilots will lose certification.Then it will take 6-9 months to retrain them,at greater cost.
General James Amos,Commandant of the US Marine Corps,feels sequestration will have a devastating impact on readiness.Short term and long term,the effect of disruption to global order will have significant economic consequences for the American people.The devastating impacts on the Marine Corps will include ships being stuck in port;aircraft grounded;units only partially trained;modernisation programs cancelled.
The long term results will put us at an unsustainable tipping point.
Its impact is already being felt.Sequestration does not hurt things;it hurts people.Inadequate training;degraded equipment;reduced survivability-even our wounded warriors will be increasingly placed at risk.
It's a dramatic resourcing cliff that will threaten the foundation of the all-volunteer force.These are all risks that demand our immediate attention.
Senator John McCain said the signal we are sending to the Iranians is don't worry;this aircraft carrier isn't coming.We are in the most unstable period since the end of the Cold War.
It's disgraceful to treat the men and women of our armed forces this way.We owe them a certain amount of certainty.This can have a long term effect on retention.
General Martin Dempsey,US Army,Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,noted that,on a scale of 1-10,it's a 10 danger to our country.It's the steepest,biggest reduction to the Defense Department in history.