Blastoff! Atlas V rocket launches classified USSF-51 Space Force mission - YouTube - 30 JUL 2024 - Cape Canaveral Space Force Station

Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service:Russia Prepares for Prolonged Conflict with Ukraine and Confrontation with the West

Kaupo Rosin is Director General,Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.The most incisive chapter of the report "International Security and Estonia 2024" by the EFIS is entitled "Adapting Russia's Armed Forces For Prolonged Conflict":The objectives of Russia's military reform reflect the leadership's vision of the resources required for the conflict with Ukraine and prolonged confrontation with the West.Russia's goal is to achieve military dominance in the Baltic Sea Region.For Estonia,Russia's military reform entails a significant increase in Russia's forces near the Estonian border in coming years.Increasing the personnel and adding new units to the armed forces is the primary purpose of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu's military reform.Russia aims to increase its military personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million Soldiers by 2026;restructure 12 land and naval brigades into divisions;and create dozens of new divisions in the land,air and naval forces,as well as in the airborne troops.The formation of many of these units has already begun,but the main challenge is their shortfall of contracted service members and officers,which develop the unit formation process.*Although Russia plans to develop all strategic directions,the highest priority is in the Western strategic direction and Ukraine.The Kremlin is preparing for a prolonged conflict with Ukraine,necessitating additional armies and army corps (3rd and 40th Army Corps,18th Army and 25th Army,for which dozens of new manoeuvre,combat support and combat service units are being formed).*The second priority region is the Finnish direction,where Russia's military posture was minimal until Finland's recent accession to NATO.Russia plans to create the 4th Army Corps,likely based in Petrozavordsk,to address this.This formation will probably be built around at least two or three manoeuvre units,with around a dozen fire support and combat support units.*The growth of Russian military capabilities in the Estonian vacinity,in Leningrad and Pskov districts,primarily results from the potential transformation of existing units into divisions.According to one possible scenario,the personnel strength of Russian land forces and airborne troops in the Estonian direction may nearly double from approximately 19,000 forces from before 24 February 2022 (anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine).The extent to which these units attain combat strength depends on Russia's ability to recruit,train,and retain contracted service members.The success and timeline of Russia's military reform will be largely determined by the course of the war in Ukraine.If Russia manages to implement the reform,NATO could face a Soviet-style mass army in the next decade.This army is likely to be technologically inferior to the NATO Allies' defence forces in most areas,except for electronic warfare and long-range strike capabilities.However,its military potential would be significant,owing to its size,fire-power (including artillery power and inexpensive attack drones),combat experience and reserves.Defending against a possible conventional attack from such an army would require Allied defence forces and defence industries to be significantly more prepared,capable,and better stocked with ammunition than they currently are.*In summary,Russia's plan to increase its military forces is ambitious,especially considering the short timelines and Russia's economic and demographic situation.However,it is also a threat to Europe and NATO,contributing to Russia's aggressive posture,military potential,and growing militarisation reinforcing Russia's apparent path of a long-term confrontation with the West.*Russia is attempting to tilt Moldova back into its orbit by influencing the electoral process of 2024-2025.For its part,Moldova has banned major Russian propaganda channels;shut down numerous local Internet portals disseminating Russia's war propaganda;and decisively resisted political parties directly controlled and funded by Russia.Indeed,in the summer of 2023,Moldovan authorities expelled most Russian Embassy diplomats,after identifying some of them as intelligence operatives.*According to the Financial Times news outlet,the NATO Joint Support and Enabling Command in Ulm,South Germany is devising plans for how NATO forces will deploy across Europe and be sustained and reinforced in the event of a war with Russia.In this process,lessons learned from the ongoing Steadfast Defender 24 exercise,which simulates a large-scale conflcit with an adversary from the East,will be utilised.The scenario for the drills is a Russian attack on Alliance territory.*Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna said NATO may only have three-four years before the Kremlin mounts a test for NATO:But we must understand the Russian war machine has started in the full scale,the capabilities for the production and the mentality as well,because Putin is controlling everything now.*For his part,German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius warns the test could come in the next decade,in five-eight years.

Pacific Perspective:Australian General Officer Begins 4th Year as DIA Deputy Director for Commonwealth Integration

On 15 January 2021,MAJGEN Michelle McGuiness of the Australian Defence Force was appointed Deputy Director for Commonwealth Integration by the DOD Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).In this role,MAJGEN McGuiness ensures that DIA and the broader U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) are best positioned to cooperate,collaborate and integrate with key international Partners ,facilitating cordial intelligence relationships.Her position of Deputy Director for Commonwealth Integration focuses on stengthening ties and information sharing between the United States and its Commenwealth Partners,which include Australia,New Zealand ,the UK and Canada (FIVEEYES Alliance).MAGJEN McGuiness' expertise contributes to enhancing intellligence collaboration across borders,ultimately supporting national security and defence efforts.Her responsibilities involve fostering communication;joint operations;and strategic alignment with Commonwealth nations.By working closely with international counterparts,MAJGEN McGuinnes helps ensure that intelligence flows seemlessly,enabling effective decison making and coordinated response to global challenges.In summary,MAJGEN McGuinness plays a vital role in promoting intelligence integration between Commonwealth countries and the United States,contributing to a safer and more secure world.Her role is the practical embodiment of the major Partner integration lines of effort expressed in the 2022 U.S. National Defense Strategy,the 2021 Defense Intelligence Strategy,and the 2021 Interim National Security Strategy.*Biographical notes:Michelle has served in a range of tactical,operational,and strategic assignments in both General and Staff appointments.She began her career in 1994 at the Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA),graduating into the Australian Intelligence Corps,and spending her formative years at the tactical level leading and managing intelligence operations in human intelligence (HUMINT),interrogation,and exploitation initiatives.Since 2005,she has served in key roles focusing on Partner engagement and interoperability,including within the U.S.,as a liason officer within the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO).*She continued her career at Australian Army Headquarters in support of service-level engagement programmes for several nations.For her service in the U.S.,she has twice been awarded the U.S. Army Meritorious Service Medal.*In 2024,she returned to ADFA as the Chief Instructor and Commanding Officer.In 2016,she served as Assistant Military Attache at the Australian Embassy in Washington,DC.For her service in these appointments,she was awarded the Conspicuous Service Cross.*Her other senior officer appointments include Chief of Staff to the Chief of Defence Force and Director General,Counterproliferation and Terrorism at the Australian Defence Intelligence Organisation (DIO),where she led interagency efforts supporting whole-of-government counterproliferation missions.*Michelle's deployments include Timor-Leste and the Soloman Islands,and her service at the JIEDDO in 2006 was in direct support of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.*Michelle holds a BA (Politics and Bahasa Indonesian) and a Master of International Public Policy with Distinction from Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.She graduated from the Harvard Business School Advanced Management Program and the Australian Institute Company of Directors.Michelle is married with two amazing school-aged children and enjoys travelling as a family,exploring food and the outdoors,and being active in her community.*Michelle spoke at the DGI 2024 Conference at the Focus Day on 11 March 2024 at the Queen Elizabeth Centre,London - DGI:Geospatial Intelligence for Defence and Security,20th Anniversary.She also spoke at the DODIIS Worldwide Event 2023:We share challenges,we come together,and together we are stronger.She noted that enabling collaboration and rapid,secure information exchange is key to leveraging the full and unparalleled advantage of Allies and Partners.

NATO:Tabloid's Disclosure of Chilling Russian Intentions is for a Bundeswehr Training Exercise

A chilling disclosure by the German tabloid Bild suggested that Russia would escalate the Ukraine war to a hybrid war against NATO Allies in 2024 that could then lead to an attack against NATO Allies in 2025.NATO has responded to the disclosure by saying it refers to a Bundeswehr (German military) training scenario.The escalation was to begin in the Eastern Flank in 2024 and intensify to a major armed conflict in Europe in 2025.In fact,Russia is planning a major military buildup of its army from 1 to 1.5 million Soldiers.Recently,Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Ukraine with an unrecoverable blow that would annihilate Ukrainian statehood.*The secret document obtained by Bild said there would be a Russian spring 2024 offensive against Ukraine,followed by a hybrid war against the Baltic States with cyberattacks and other hybrid warfare tactics.In October 2024,Russia will build up its Kaliningrad enclave with troops and missiles.In December 2024,Russia will instigate border conflicts in the Suwalki Gap,a rural area of Northeastern Poland that borders Lithuania and is seen as a NATO vunerability as it is the fastest route between Russia and Belarus.Post-US 2024 Presidential elections and the vulnerability of a presidential transition,Russia will invade a NATO Ally,possibly assisted by Belarus.Thirty days later,NATO will carry out large reinforcements to its Eastern Flank.Indeed,a Sulwalki Gap conflict engineered by Russia could cause many casualties.In a NATO D-day scenario,300,000 NATO troops would be deployed to the Eastern Flank,including 30,000 Bundeswehr personnel.*Possibly this scenario is what led Sweden to warn its people to prepare for a crisis or conflict in Europe.It contains realistic elements that were perhaps garnered by the Intelligence Community.

USAF. U-2 Dragon Lady high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft prepares for flight

From maintenance by Airmen and Lockheed Martin Skunk Works contractors to launch and recovery,a legendary aircraft completes a mission.The CIA has its own U-2 fleet.*Lockheed Martin (LMT)

F-22 Raptor Brings Down China's Spy Balloon

Four Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor fifth generation fighters were scrambled at Joint Base Langley-Eustis in Virginia Saturday.They were needed to bring down the Chinese military balloon that attempted to gather intelligence over US territory in a blatant violation of US sovereignty and international law.The balloon was loaded with tons of surveillance equipment directed at sensitive military bases with an apparent emphasis on strategic systems such as the Minuteman III ICBM and B-2 Spirit bombers.* The Raptors arrived on scene off the South Carolina coast and loitered while they awaited the balloon's arrival.The balloon had first violated Canada's sovereignty before heading south into Montana and surveilling Malmstrom Air Force Base and its missile fields.It had traveled from China to the Bering Sea and the Aleutian Islands of Alaska before violating Canadian air space,all the while tracked by NORAD.Eventually it wandered east over to Whiteman Air Force Base,Missouri,home of the B-2 Spirit strategic bomber.NORTHCOM,out of Peterson Air Force Base,Colorado,provides protection for the US mainland and took charge of the hostile incident.Two air refueling tankers flew a pattern off South Carolina,standing by to refuel aircraft as needed.* On Wednesday,US President Joseph R. Biden ordered the Pentagon to shoot down the balloon in the safest way as soon as possible.The Pentagon chose the sea option.* Climbing to an altitude of 58,000 ft.,one of the F-22s fired a Raytheon AIM-9 Sidewinder heat-seeking missile at the balloon at short range.It punctured the balloon with a thud,rendering it limp as it plunged for about five minutes to the coastal waters below within the 12-mile territorial zone of the United States.Whatever lands within the zone is legally under US Government control.The balloon ended up at a depth of merely 47 feet,easily retrievable by even novice divers.The US Navy and Coast Guard secured the scene by establishing a perimeter.A salvage vessel made its way to the wreckage of the ill-fated Chinese contraption.Electronic warfare measures had been applied to its technology by US Forces as it was blown along,ensuring that it couldn't achieve its unlawful mission unhindered.The debris field had been ascertained by NORTHCOM and NASA in advance.* Analysis:So China ended up with its surveillance technology in the hands of the US Intelligence Community,embarrassed by this bizarre mission of the People's Liberation Army.For its part,Canada expressed its appreciation for the US downing of the balloon.* Lockheed Martin (LMT),Raytheon Technologies (RTX)

US Official:Russian Invasion of Ukraine Means More US Troops to Europe

A senior US official told reporters that,should Russian President Vladimir Putin order the invasion of Ukrainian territory for a second time,one result would be the US sending additional troops to reinforce Europe: It would certainly be the case that if Putin moved in,there would be an increasing request from Eastern Flank Allies,and a positive response from the United States,for additional forces and capabilities and exercises to take place there to ensure the safety and security of our Eastern Flank Allies in the face of that kind of aggression in Ukraine...a combination of support for the Ukrainian military;strong economic countermeasures;and a substantial increase in support and capability to our NATO Allies to ensure that they remain safe.* Indeed,NATO Ally Latvia has already called for US troops to be permanently based on its territiory.The anonymous US official declined to specify under which circumstances the US military coud get involved if Russia carries out an attack on Ukraine,described by the Intelligence Community as a possible three-pincer strike with at least 175,000 Russian military personnel.As for Ukraine joining NATO (it already has a Membership Action Plan to chart its course to NATO membership),the official stressed that: The US has consistently expressed support for the principle that every country has the sovereign right to make its own decisions with respect to its security.That remains US policy today and will remain US policy in the furture.So that much is straightforward and clear.* There is also some concern that,should Russia barge into Ukraine,China might seize the opportunity to invade Taiwan at the same time.*

From Past to Future:the CIA in Afghanistan

On 26 August 2021,a large CIA compound in Kabul was destroyed by US forces in a controlled demolition that reverberated across the city.Eagle Base was,at the very least,a training facility where Afghan counterterrorism personnel were trained.The demolition was deemed necessary because of the large amount of sensitive hard drives and equipment on the base.Yet,although the base's downfall was spectacular,it far from ended the CIA's concern about Afghanistan. Although US military operations in Afghanistan will end tomorrow,the CIA is considering how it will operate in the region in the future.This was made an acute problem when the recent ISIL-K attack that killed 11 US Marines,a US Navy corpsman and a US Army Special Forces member,pointed up the threat posed by Islamist extremist groups in Afghanistan to US and Allied interests now the US military is leaving.According to Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby,US Navy retired: We still believe there are credible specific threats.* Indeed,a rocket attack on Hamid Karzai International Airport launched from a vehicle occurred on 29 August,but was repulsed by the US Counter-Rocket Artillery and Mortar System (CRAM),which returned fire.After 31 August,the airport comes under Taliban control and all US diplomats will have departed the airport.Just how HKIA will continue to operate and be defended from ISIL-K terrorists remains to be seen;but perhaps this was covered when new CIA Director William Burns flew to Kabul to meet with the Taliban political leader,Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar.* According to The New York Times,the CIA is busy looking for new bases in Central Asian countries,because it needs to ascertain how its Clandestine Service,which runs spy networks, will collect Human Intelligence (HUMINT) without the US military and diplomatic bases it had access to in Afghanistan over the past 20 years;and where it will launch its fleet of Predator drones from to carry out counterterror strikes.At least 19 CIA officers died in the Afghan War,the last one being a former US Marine reconnaissance expert killed in May of 2019.* About 1200 people have been evacuated from HKIA over the past 24 hours,bringing the total Operation Allies Refuge evacuations to about 122,300.Some 250 Americans remain who wish to be spirited out of the country,not to mention thousands of key Afghans.The CIA has reportedly been helping with covert rescue missions,as have US veterans groups. In addition to using its own land,air and sea special operators,another possibility for the Agency is to oversee US military Special Operations Forces detailed to certain CIA activities,as they had been during the operation to find and kill Osama bin Laden,the New York Times added.*

Operation Allies Refuge:Airport Firefight Erupts With Unknown Assailants

On 23 August 2021,a firefight with unknown assailants broke out at the German gate of Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul.One Afghan guard was killed and three others wounded.There are about 600 former members of the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces now serving as guards at the airport.German and US troops also took part in the hostilities,but sustained no casualties.It is possible the assailants were members of ISIL-K,the Afghanistan branch of Islamic State,as the US has warned of an IS threat to the airport over recent days. On 22 August,US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that: the threat is real,accute and persistent...We are working hard with our Intelligence Community to isolate,to determine where such an attack might come from.* Indeed,US President Joseph R. Biden said from the Roosevelt Room at the White House yesterday: I'm not going to talk about the tactical changes that we're making to keep the airport as secure as we can.I don't want to get into the details.We've changed the gate operations and a whole range of things.* The Taliban have agreed to having a larger safety zone around HKIA.* On 20 August,Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby,US Navy retired,noted that: Al-Qaida is a presence as well as ISIS (another name for Islamic Stae).We believe there isn't a presence of al-Qaida significant enough to pose a threat to the homeland.Obviously,we're going to maitain an overwatch capability.We do believe we'll be able to maintain a warning sufficient for counterterrorism. The secretary's not going to rule anything in out in order to get done what we have to do there.Now we've built up extra capacity in the past few days,the secretary feels we can accomplish the mission...We have flown in additiobal forces,so if there would be a need,we would examine those options and offer up options to the secretary.Every decision that has to be made has to weigh the risks and the benefits.If the secretary were to make a major muscle movement,he would want to ask the White House.* There have been reports of US helicopters flying out of the airport to pick up people from multiple locations,but Mr.Kirby said: I cannot confirm those reports.* According to CNN Senior International Correspondent Sam Kiley,the US is using secret methods to bring people into the airport.Reportedly,sensitive operations may be underway to rescue key individuals.President Biden had revealed yesterday that we have evacuated nearly 28,000 people since 14 August.*

US Continues Combat Air Role in Afghanistan - plus the future of the Iraq Mission

According to GEN Kenneth McKenzie,US Marine Corps,Commander,US Central Command: We have increased airstrikes against the Taliban in support of Afghan forces over the past several days,and we are prepared to continue this heightened support in the coming weeks if the Taliban continue their attacks.Taliban victory is not inevitable.* In addition,the US will continue giving the Afghan Air Force logistical support following the withdrawal of all US and foreign forces as of 31 August 2021.* Meanwhile,about 900 US troops,including some in Infantry Figthing Vehicles, continue to support Operation Inherent Resolve against Islamic State militants in Syria.With regard to Iraq,US President Joseph R. Biden received Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi at the White House yesterday.The two leaders discussed the ongoing strategic dialogue between the two countries,which includes health care;climate change;energy;strengthening Iraqi democracy;and security cooperation-especially our shared fight against ISIS (another word for Islamic State) and our counterterrorism effort.* President Biden noted that: Today our relations are stronger than ever.I think things are going well.Our troops will continue to train,to assist,to help,and to deal with ISIS as it arises.* Mr.Biden announced that the 2500 US troops in Iraq will no longer be in a combat role after the end of 2021,however.Indeed,it has been some time since they exercised such a function.NATO has a separate training mission in Iraq as well.* The Iraqi Security Forces still need more training.What is more,they need the intelligence support that the US troops provide through their presence in Iraq,observed CNN correspondent Arwa Damon.*

At a facility near the Defense Intelligence Agency,Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling,Washington,DC:US Ambassador NIKKI HALEY Presents Evidence of IRAN's UN Violations 12/1...

Pentagon Responds to Query From Congressmen on a Korean War II - airstrikes not enough

On 27 October 2017,Rear Admiral Michael J. Dumont,US Navy,responded to a letter from Representatives Ted Lieu (D-California) and Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona),who asked the Department of Defense to scope out a possible armed conflict with North Korea for them.They were particularly interested in the expected casualty assessment and the prevention of North Korean retaliation.
RADM Dumont replied that:
We have not seen any change in the offensive posture of North Korea's forces,something we watch very carefully.We remain postured to respond in the event of a provocation or conflict,and we have taken all appropriate measures to protect our Allies,the ROK and Japan,and US Forces in those countries.As military professionals,we prepare for all contingencies and continually review our posture and coalition efforts to deter and respond,if necessary,using the full range of military capabilities.*
Calculating even the roughest "best-or worst-case casualty estimates " for any conventional or nuclear attack is challenging.We continually evaluate what actions North Korea might take,and its capability to attack the ROK,Japan or Guam,and in particular Seoul,with long-range artillery,rockets,and ballistic missiles.In addition to being the capital and the ROK's most densely populated city,Seoul is also just 35 miles from the demilitarized zone.Given Seoul's vulnerability,casualty estimates will vary significantly depending upon the nature,intensity,and duration of a North Korean attack.
Further complicating casualty estimates,is the ability of our ROK-US Alliance Forces to respond to a North Korean attack with counter-battery fire and coalition airstrikes,missions for which we train constantly.We can help mitigate the number of casualties and reduce the duration of  a North Korean attack by maintaining the readiness of our forces and our ability to respond rapidly and decisively.*
The only way to "locate and destroy-with complete certainty-all components of North Korea's nuclear weapons programs" is through a ground invasion.A classified briefing is the best venue for a detailed discussion of our capabilities to counter North Korea's ability to respond and to eliminate North Korea's nuclear weapons located in deeply buried,underground facilities.We would be happy to join the Intelligence Community to address these issues in a classified briefing,RADM Dumont offered.*
President Donald Trump is currently traveling through East Asia to meet with South Korean and Japanese leaders,as well as President Xi Jinping of China,on the North Korea crisis.

British Officer Assumes New DIA Deputy Post;New Bethesda IC Campus Opens

On 30 October,Defense Intelligence Agency director Lieutenant General Vincent R. Stewart,US Marine Corps,announced that Air Vice Marshall Sean Corbett,Royal Air Force,United Kingdom,has been selected as the first deputy director for Commonwealth Integration (DDCI) at the DIA.It is a rotational post for the FVEY allies,or "Five Eyes," at the DIA,referring to the intelligence alliance between the US,Canada,UK,Australia and New Zealand.This alliance has drawn closer over the past 10 years for a better exchange of intelligence,assessment and burden-sharing to enhance collaboration on challenging intelligence issues.*
AVM Corbett is the RAF's senior intelligence officer and has commanded joint and single service intelligence organisations at every level.He had previously served as Chief of Intelligence,Afghanistan,and,most recently,as Assistant Chief of Staff (Intelligence),Permanent Joint Headquarters,UK.*
Earlier in October,the DIA held a ribbon-cutting for the new Intelligence Community Campus located at 4600 Sangamore Road,Bethesda,Maryland.The ICC-B is an advanced collaborative IC campus for up to 3,000 relocated intelligence staff from the Washington National Capital Area.
I believe this world-class facility is a beautiful addition to the community,said Director of National Intelligence General James Clapper,US Air Force Retired,at the ceremony.This facility is,in so many ways,the physical manifestation of intelligence integration,GEN Clapper added.*
DIA was executive agent for the ICC-B project,which involved redeveloping the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency's Sumner Campus into an integrated multi-agency site.The ICC-B has a new six-storey parking garage and a sleek glass façade that creates a unified modern structure by wrapping around the three pre-existing buildings.The facility will house staff from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) National Counterintelligence and Security Center;the National Intelligence University;and the DIA.Centrally located among the intelligence agencies,it is marked by the use of LED-lighting for energy conservation.As well,by redeveloping an existing campus,the IC realised a cost savings of around 60% versus the construction of new buildings.*
A combat support agency,DIA provides military intelligence to warfighters,defence policymakers and force planners in the Department of Defense and the IC.It aims to prevent strategic surprise,deter conflict and prepare to defeat future adversaries,delivering decision advantage to prevent and decisively win wars as the indispensable source of defence intelligence expertise.
The DIA's core mission capabilities are collecting,processing,exploiting and analysing foreign military and defence-related information,then producing and disseminating timely and relevant all-source analysis.It combines these with expeditionary competency in providing surge intelligence support to combatant commanders and warfighters to meet operational and tactical priority requirements.

Blair Reveals Intelligence Scope

Admiral Dennis C. Blair,U.S. Navy retired,Director of National Intelligence,revealed the scope of U.S. intelligence operations to journalists recently.Mr.Blair was going over his four year blueprint for national intelligence when he disclosed that the U.S. activity is a 200,000 person,75 billion dollar operation.About half of the personnel are in the civilian intelligence agencies,and half in the military,according to previously disclosed figures,and the civilian budget was 47.5 billion in fiscal 2008.That would make the military intelligence budget about 27.5 billion dollars.Admiral Blair refused to give further details,such as how many personnel are in each of the many agencies or what the money was spent on.He just wanted to give a rough idea of how much was involved,the retired sailor said.
Raytheon is a prominent contractor in the intelligence field.It claims that its technology forms the eyes,ears and brains of intelligence,surveillance and reconnaissance systems.