NATO:Tabloid's Disclosure of Chilling Russian Intentions is for a Bundeswehr Training Exercise

A chilling disclosure by the German tabloid Bild suggested that Russia would escalate the Ukraine war to a hybrid war against NATO Allies in 2024 that could then lead to an attack against NATO Allies in 2025.NATO has responded to the disclosure by saying it refers to a Bundeswehr (German military) training scenario.The escalation was to begin in the Eastern Flank in 2024 and intensify to a major armed conflict in Europe in 2025.In fact,Russia is planning a major military buildup of its army from 1 to 1.5 million Soldiers.Recently,Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Ukraine with an unrecoverable blow that would annihilate Ukrainian statehood.*The secret document obtained by Bild said there would be a Russian spring 2024 offensive against Ukraine,followed by a hybrid war against the Baltic States with cyberattacks and other hybrid warfare tactics.In October 2024,Russia will build up its Kaliningrad enclave with troops and missiles.In December 2024,Russia will instigate border conflicts in the Suwalki Gap,a rural area of Northeastern Poland that borders Lithuania and is seen as a NATO vunerability as it is the fastest route between Russia and Belarus.Post-US 2024 Presidential elections and the vulnerability of a presidential transition,Russia will invade a NATO Ally,possibly assisted by Belarus.Thirty days later,NATO will carry out large reinforcements to its Eastern Flank.Indeed,a Sulwalki Gap conflict engineered by Russia could cause many casualties.In a NATO D-day scenario,300,000 NATO troops would be deployed to the Eastern Flank,including 30,000 Bundeswehr personnel.*Possibly this scenario is what led Sweden to warn its people to prepare for a crisis or conflict in Europe.It contains realistic elements that were perhaps garnered by the Intelligence Community.

U-2S Dragon Lady Aircraft Deployed to Protect NATO's Eastern Flank

According to the essanews.com website,a Lockheed Martin U-2S Dragon Lady aircraft was spotted over Denmark on 5 January 2024.Another U-2S was spotted over Poland in December 2023.These are part of operations mainly focused on the Eastern Baltic Sea Region,including surveillance of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania,plus mainland Russia,Finland and Belarus.This surveillance of Russian movements is considered vital to the defence of NATO Allies.In particular,the US Air Force needs to gather intelligence about Russian activities intended to disrupt the lines of communication of NATO Allies.*The U-2S has recently received upgrades such as advanced communications;navigation;imagery technology;avionics gear;and new mission computers compatible with the new Open Mission Systems (OMS) standard of the US Armed Forces.*The Department of the Air Force (DAF) plans to retire its fleet of U-2S aircraft and the uncrewed RQ-4 Global Hawk aircraft in favour of new uncrewed aircraft because of the high expense of operating the U-2S and the need to accelerate technologically.*The DAF wants to do this by 2026.One likely candidate for the programme is the Northrop Grumman RQ-180 stealth uncrewed aircraft,which is a highly classified project.Secretary of Defense General Lloyd J. Austin III,US Army retired,has signed a waiver to make the move a reality.The Air Force has a fleet of 27 U-2S aircraft,including a small number of TU-2S two seat trainers.Congressional regulations prevent the retirement of the U-2S and RQ-4 Global Hawk unless they are replaced with a capability equal to or exceeding the current fleets.Congress reserves the right to limit the retirement of the U-2S and RQ-4 if it is dissatisfied with the justification of the waiver.*The DAF told The War Zone publication that:it must move into the future and begin to field more capable systems providing decision-quality intelligence throughout competition,crisis,and conflict.The DAF is developing and investing in various technologies to address critical National Defense Strategy (NDS) priorities focused on Great Power Competition.The DAF plans to invest in more survivable and persistent space-based sensors,along with exisiting and planned Joint Force assets.The ability to win future high-end conflicts requires accepting short-term risks by divesting legacy Intelligence,Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) assets that offer limited capability against our pacing challenge.*The RQ-180 is thought to resemble other Northrop Grumman stealth aircraft,such as the B-2 Spirit and B-21 Raider strategic bombers.The RQ-180 is believed to be close to entering service,if it is not already operating.*For its part,the Lockheed Martin Skunk Works may be working on a complement to,or even replacement for,the RQ-180,acccording to a new,unconfirmed report.Lockheed had previously suggested it had produced an uncrewed hypersonic aircraft called the SR-72.*Last year the DAF awarded to Leidos Holdings a contract to design a new,uncrewed hypersonic aircraft as part of classified Project Mayhem.A network of space-based sensors and uncrewed aircraft are the DAF's vision for future ISR capabilities.*Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS),Lockheed Martin (LMT),Northrop Grumman (NOC)

B-1Bs Arrive in Europe,Testing Agile Combat Deployment

On 6 October 2021,the first two of four US Air Force B-1B Lancer strategic bombers,together with their support equipment and some 200 personnelfrom the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Wing out of Dyess AFB,Texas arrived at RAF Fairford,England for a Bomber Task Force mission.The bombers were escorted by Royal Air Force fighter jets as they entered the theatre.The rotational mission will allow the bomber crews to deploy to unfamiliar airfields for integration with coalition Allies and Partners to enhance readiness.According to U.S. Air Forces Europe-Air Forces Africa Commander,General Jeff Harrigian: BTF missions amplify our coalition reach and project our collective airpower across theaters.By training and integrating with our Allies and Partners,we are expanding our ability to adapt to challenges and counter adversaries in the global security environment.* The bomber crews will fly the warplanes to strategic areas including the Arctic,Baltic Sea and Black Sea Regions,developing their skills to integrate and use the weapon systems to their maximum capacity.This is in the context of Russia's having made the Arctic a more contested region and strengthened its Anti-Access/Area-Denial capabilities in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad;the Baltics;occupied Crimea;and on the Black Sea,posing a heightened threat to NATO's Eastern Flank. The Lancers are being deployed according to the Air Force's agile combat deployment concept.They will use ranges and conduct simulations from the high Arctic to the Horn of Africa,reducing reliance on traditional bases and shifting to dispersed forward operating locations,in accordance with the concept. Our NATO Allies and Partners seek engagement with the B-1Bs to ensure they can counter any adversarial threat within the region.Strategic bomber missions within USAFE-AFAFRICA theatres demonstrate the ability to rapidly deploy with NATO Allies and coalition Partners,providing necessary training to the joint force,U.S. European Command noted.

Strategic Thinking:US Marines Increasing Presence in Norway

One of the main events for US Marine Forces Europe and Africa this summer was the augmentation of its rotational presence in Norway,at the request of the Norwegian government as stated in a bilateral document.This provides for:
1.More than doubling the number of Marines from about 330 to 700;
2.Establishing a second rotation of Marines in Trom County,Northern Norway,around 250 miles from the Russian border;and
3.Extending the programme for another five years.
The programme began in 2017 with a rotation in Central Norway's Trondheim area,some 900 miles from the Russian border.In a crisis,these troops could be rapidly shifted to Sweden as a Baltic reinforcement.
Besides troop rotations,the Marines have been prepositioning military equipment in the Trondelg area under the Marine Corps Prepositioning Program-Norway (MCPP-N).The MCPP-N is intended to supply a full Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) or Marine Expeditionary Brigade (MEB) for 30 days if bolstered with additional supplies.There are 6 caves and 2 storage facilities near air bases in this Central Norway location for Marine Corps vehicles and other gear.The exact locations are classified;but the stated purpose of the caches is to support global operations.
The Marines also utilise the Maritime Prepositioning Force (MPF),storing their gear on ships.The gear is used for exercises in Northern Europe and Theater Security Cooperation Events,as well as being on hand for crisis response.*
Most of the Marines are based near Trondheim;under the new agreement,an undisclosed number will rotate to the Arctic Trom region.Indeed,even those in Central Norway have concentrated on acquiring Arctic warfighting skills.Norway is very concerned about Russia's Arctic activities,since Norway's land border with Russia is in the Far North;as well,Russia's Northern Fleet transits the Barents Sea,including ballistic missile submarines armed with ICBMs.*
In strategic circles,it is commonly believed Russia might launch a surprise ground attack on the Baltic States,fortified with its anti-access/area denial advantage from its ballistic missile,air power and surface-to-air defence assets in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad,which is located between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea.
This scenario could also entail a quick strike on Sweden's Gotland Island to establish a second Baltic A2AD chokehold,so the Marines have done some training on Gotland,during the Aurora 17 drills.

As Exercise Aurora Unfolds,Details from Zapad 17 Emerge - little green men,U-2S Dragon Lady and Swedish SIGINT

Adrenaline is running high in Europe as multiple crucial exercises are underway on both sides of the geopolitical divide.
On 19 September,Exercise Aurora 17 began in Sweden.It is the largest Swedish national exercise in more than twenty years,US European Command said.Augmenting the more than 19,000 Swedish personnel,the US has sent about 1300 Soldiers,Marines and Sailors,and France has contributed air defence forces.
US European Command commander and Supreme Allied Commander Europe,General Curtis M. Scaparrotti,US Army,stated that:
The interoperability and cooperation of Sweden and the US remains vital.*
Aurora 17 is running from 19-27 September.The drills will occur in Malardalen,Stockholm,Gotland and Gothenberg,Sweden.US Forces participating include:
from the US Army:US Army10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command;12th Combat Aviation Brigade;2nd Cavalry Regiment;194th Armored Regiment,Minnesota Army National Guard;134th Infantry Regiment,Nebraska Army National Guard;149th Maneuver Enhancement Brigade,Kentucky Army National Guard;
from the US Marine Corps:Marine Rotational Force Europe 17.2;
from the US Navy:Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Oscar Austin (DDG 79);and a P-8A Poseidon from Patrol Squadron 16.*
The forces will train in both defensive and offensive operations;simulated airborne operations;simulated amphibious assault;as well as area security and unit level tactics.*
Meanwhile,sources in theatre,particularly the Finns,have been sharing their observations of Russian/Belorussian Exercise Zapad 17,giving the ambience of Zapad and the response to it:
1.On 16 September,so called "little green men" in unmarked camouflage fatigues appeared on the border with Lithuania,the Swedish publication Cornucopia reported.One photo showed five LGM in a field with balaclavas and kalashnikov rifles;and a second photo shows two LGM,one of whom has removed his balaclava.They are reportedly hybrid warriors,Don Cossack paramilitaries,some of whom were also noted to be active in annexed Crimea and the beseiged Donbas region in Ukraine.*
2.According to another source,a US Air Force U-2S Dragon Lady reconnaissance aircraft departed RAF Fairford,England,at 0655 hours on a Baltic mission on 17 September.
3.On 14 September,the Russian 6th Tank Brigade that had seen heavy fighting in Ukraine in 2014 joined Zapad 17 drills.
4.On 17 September,strategic places in Severodvinsk were masked by aerosol fogging in the framework of Zapad 17.
5.On 18 September,land units of the Russian Baltic Fleet carried out firing in the framework of Zapad 17;while a shipborne strike group of the Russian Northern Fleet supported artillery forces of the Russian Marines.
6.On 17 September,a Swedish SIGINT plane was sent on a mission outside the Russian outpost of Kaliningrad.

NATO Critical of Russian Military Buildup on the Baltic Sea

Russia's new Bastion mobile missile launchers have been deployed to the Russian outpost of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea,in addition to previously deployed nuclear-capable Iskander short range ballistic missiles and long range S-400 air defence missiles there,the Russian Interfax news agency announced on 21 November 2016.NATO responded by saying these anti-ship missiles are aggressive military posturing that doesn't help to lower tensions or restore predictability to our relations.*
For its part,the US State Department responded to Russia's recent military buildup in Kaliningrad during a daily briefing by spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby,US Navy Retired:
While we understand that Russia has the right to exercise its conventional and nuclear forces on its own territory,the deployment of Iskander and S-400 missiles to Kaliningrad is destabilising to European security.Russia has made threats to move Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad now for the past decade in response to a variety of developments in Europe,none of which demands such a military response.We also call on Russia to refrain from words or deeds that are not consistent with the goal of promoting security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region.*
Russia has also deployed Bastion missile launchers to the Syrian coast.Kaliningrad is between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea coastline.Russia insists the buildup is only in response to NATO's positioning of US Navy land-based Aegis missile systems in Romania and under construction in Poland.

Russia Steps Up Probing of Nordic-Baltic Region - four NATO Allies respond in one day

US Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work took Russia to task for its recent behaviour in the Nordic-Baltic Region at a press conference following a meeting with eight delegates from the region on 7 October 2016.Finland said two Russian Su-27 Flanker fighter jets violated its airspace on separate occasions in the Gulf of Finland south of Porvoo that same day.Russian military aviation over the Baltic Sea has been intense,Finland noted;while Iceland had complained that two Russian Tu-160 Blackjack bombers flew too close to civilian airliners,flying between 1800-2700 meters/6,000-9,000 feet below a flight from Reykjavik,Iceland to Stockholm,Sweden.
There is absolutely no justification for it,Secretary Work said.Regardless of the timing,regardless of the circumstances,these are unsatisfactory manoeuvres that are unsafe and unprofessional.Hopefully we'll be able to see a moderation in them to avoid an accident or a tragic occurrence.Unfortunately,these are becoming the norm rather than the exception.*
Attending the US-Nordic-Baltic forum were Denmark,Estonia,Finland,Iceland,Latvia,Lithuania,Norway and Sweden.The forum dealt with regional security issues such as Russian behaviour in the Baltic Sea and ways to increase defence cooperation-including in the War On ISIL.*
Preceding the forum,the French Ministry of Defence revealed that,on 22 September 2016,four NATO Allies had scrambled fighter jets to intercept two Russian Tu-160 Blackjack bombers:
1.The extraordinary chase began when Norway scrambled two F-16 Fighting Falcons to escort the Blackjacks towards the north of Scotland.
2.The British sent Typhoons from RAF Lossiemouth to intercept the Russian bombers and shadow them around the west of Scotland and Ireland.As a precaution,more Typhoons were scrambled from RAF Coningsly in Lincolnsire,but didn't intercept the Blackjacks in the end.
3.Two French Rafale fighters then intercepted the Russians 100 km off the Britanny coast.Two other Rafales took over as the bombers headed south.
4.Finally,two Spanish F-18s shadowed the Blackjacks north of Bilbao,at which point the Russians turned around and flew home.*
Russia has also deployed its Iskander-M mobile nuclear-capable missile system to its territory of Kaliningrad on the Baltic coast,which is wedged between Poland and Lithuania.Poland said this was very alarming and of the highest concern;but Russia insists it is only an exercise and has been done before.

US Army Europe:Russia's Current Posture and NATO's Response

On 9 December,Lieutenant General Ben Hodges,commander,US Army Europe,briefed reporters at the Pentagon on the current situation in Eastern Europe.The Russian snap exercises,there's never an observer there,said LTGEN Hodges.We kind of find out about them when they're happening.And so that kind of capability that they have,where you could show up at a training area in Kaliningrad or Belarus,or both at the same time,you could see that's a threat or concern that we have because of the lack of transparency.The Russians can operate on their interior lines and quickly shift forces around,so all the exercises conducted by the US and its NATO allies place a heavy emphasis on speed:the speed to recognise a potential crisis;speed to act politically;and speed of assembly and movement of troops to the point of crisis by road and rail.Speed and proper execution of operation also would depend on interoperability among all the US allies,so that's the focus of training and exercise.*
Russia hasn't allowed independent monitoring of the Minsk agreement to determine their compliance with it.Since September,there have been several cease fire violations and Ukrainians have been killed.Russia has pulled back a lot of heavy equipment from the border area,but the infrastructure remains in place and Russia could quickly ramp up if they wanted to.
In Crimea,Russia has 25,000 soldiers,a credible air defence and its Black Sea fleet which is capable of blocking US and ally access to the Black Sea where Romania,Bulgaria,Turkey and Georgia are located.
Moving westward,Russia has a significant naval and ground force in Kaliningrad,a wedge of land between Lithuania and Poland.That force could effectively cut off access to the Baltic area.Russian officials have talked about Denmark,Sweden and Romania in terms of being nuclear targets-an irresponsible use of words-so you can see why our European allies are nervous.
NATO allies are working on speed of response.The US is contributing a rotational brigade out of Fort Stewart,Georgia to the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force.About 1300 vehicles such as tanks and howitzers are set up in Romania,Bulgaria and Lithuania-the European Activity Sets-to increase speed of response.By September 2016,the US expects to add sites in Poland,Estonia and Latvia;and in Hungary by 2017.*
In Western Ukraine,about 400 US troops are training and equipping Ukrainian soldiers as part of Joint Multinational Training Group Ukraine,which also includes British,Lithuanian and Canadian trainers,LTGEN Hodges noted.*
The second phase of this US Fearless Guardian Mission to train and equip Ukrainian forces began in late November.The effort will help Ukraine better monitor and secure its border;operate more safely and effectively;and preserve and enforce its territorial integrity,said Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis,US Navy.Up to five battalions of Ministry of Defence personnel and one battalion of Special Operations Forces are being trained in this phase.The US had previously trained Ukrainian national guard forces.
About 300 US soldiers from the 173rd Airborne Brigade are doing the training.Ministry of Defence Training is at the International Peacekeeping Centre at Yavoniv;and Special Operations Forces training is at Khmelnitsky,CAPT Davis added.

US Paratroopers,Frigate Bolster Eastern Europe

Four companies of US Army paratroopers from the 173d Airborne Brigade Combat Team have arrived in,or are en route to,Poland and the Baltic states of Estonia,Latvia and Lithuania.As well,the US Navy frigate USS Taylor(FFG 50) is to replace the destroyer USS Donald Cook(DDG 75) on station in the Black Sea.Both moves are in response to Russian activity in the region.
The soldiers will begin a series of infantry exercises across the four NATO allies that border Russia.They are initiating rotational deployments,so that about 600 troops-one company of 150 for each country-will be in place through at least the end of the year,and possibly into next year.The US-Polish exercises will begin Wednesday,and the US-Baltic states exercises will start on Monday.
These countries have requested more of a US presence in light of what the NATO alliance considers to be Russian agression against Ukraine in recent weeks.They will be live fire exercises.According to Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby,even more US forces could be dispatched to other NATO countries.It will be a persistent,protracted presence.The deployments will last through the end of 2014 at the very least.They were added to the normal schedule of bilateral exercises because of the tension in Ukraine,RADM Kirby said.
All the expanded land forces training activities will be in place by 28 April.When the first exercises are completed,we will rotate fresh troops in for more,RADM Kirby explained.Talks are ongoing about expanding them into other countries in the region.This may include other NATO forces and those of partner nations.We take our obligations very,very seriously on the continent of Europe,RADM Kirby stated.*
Meanwhile,the USS Donald Cook is finishing up its deployment to the Black Sea and will be replaced by the USS Taylor,which has been repaired at Naval Support Activity Souda Bay,Greece.Since March,18 US Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons have been beefing up NATO air patrols over Poland and the Baltic states in response to Russian military activity in Ukraine and Kaliningrad,a Russian enclave adjacent to Northeast Poland.

US Air Force Augments Baltic Presence

Over March 14-15,12 US Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons plus a C-130 transport and about 200 support troops arrived at Lask Air Base near Lodz,Poland.The planes and personnel are with the 555th Fighter Squadron,31st Fighter Wing at Aviano Air Base,Italy.They will be conducting an off-site exercise with the Polish air force to demonstrate US commitment to the NATO collective defence pact,Air Force News reported.
Lt.Col.John Peterson,Squadron Commander,said one of their objectives is to develop bonds so that if something happens,and we have to take action in a real world environment,you want to have trained together in advance.You want to develop those tactics,techniques and procedures before you're in a combat environment.Unless you figure out how to work together at a tactical level,from the Squadron Commander to the Junior Airman turning wrenches-you lose out on the opportunity to know each other's strengths and develop your weaknesses.
There is a permanent detachment of about 10 USAF personnel in Poland to act as a coordinating element for joint training between the US and its NATO ally Poland.Its aim is to remain ready to operate across the range of military operations with precise,full-spectrum capability.It was activated in November 2012 and makes it possible to host multiple allied air force elements,and serves as a regional hub for air training and multinational exercrises.
The current augmentation by the USAF with common assets-Poland has 48 of its own F-16 fighters-is seen as a milestone in the rotational deployment of US military resources in Poland since 2012.*
At the same time,another augmentation has occurred in the Baltic state of Lithuania with the deployment of six USAF F-15C Eagles and a KC-135 tanker,plus more than 60 airmen,from RAF Lakenheath,England to Siauliai Air Base at the request of the Baltic allies Lithuania,Latvia and Estonia.These countries lack their own air force and NATO sends aircraft to patrol their airspace on a rotational basis.The six F-15s are an augmentation of the current routine USAF deployment to Lithuania,which runs from January through April,when Poland will assume the patrols.
The Lithuanian defence ministry said the augmentation was in response to the Russian aggression in Ukraine and its amplified miltary activity in the Kaliningrad
region,Baltic News Service reported.Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite told journalists in Brussels that Russia was trying to redraw the boundaries,so first it's Ukraine;Moldova will be next;and,finally,it can reach the Baltic states.
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered live fire exercises in Kaliningrad without following the standard protocol of notifying the nearby Baltic states and Poland or inviting international observers,according to Polish General Marek Dukaczewski.Kaliningrad is a Russian enclave bordering Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea.*
Another NATO ally,Turkey,which is across the Black Sea from Ukraine,has recently scrambled fighter jets to intercept Russian warplanes probing its air defences.