If Baghdad Falls-What Would Draw the US Further Into The War?

On 17 June 2015,the outgoing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,General Martin Dempsey,US Army,and Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter testified before the House Armed Services Committee about the War On ISIL,with frank discussion of what circumstances would possibly increase US involvement.GEN Dempsey outlined the context of the conflict with the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant by noting that:
1.Several governments in the region are struggling for political legitimacy.
2.There is a rivalry between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
3.There is rising competition between radical and moderate Islam.This will continually challenge the region's security forces.
We have an appropriate level of effort.This is an Iraq first strategy,but not an Iraq only one.We are at the beginning of a complex,non-linear campaign.We are constantly evaluating our approach and making sure we are resourcing it appropriately.
This has to be them winning.In our military campaign,we are on the path to delivering that which we are committed to providing:the ability to defeat ISIL on their sovereign territory.We're trying to build a network that will enable the region's players to confront this threat.
Why are we not targeting known ISIL assets?Leadership targets,fuel targets are authorised.We do strike those targets.The limitation is to try to avoid civilian casualties.Commander CENTCOM has the authority to select targets.Consider that 397 strike aircraft and 1650 pilots fly these missions every day.In my judgement,the avoidance of civilian casualties is not the limiting factor of our success against ISIL.
I think our strategy matches the complexity of what we're dealing with.The reality is,some of our Sunni partners are more worried about Iran's influence than they are about ISIL.We're reaching out to Sunnis at the request of Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi.
We've got almost 50% of intelligence,search and rescue unmanned assigned to Iraq/Syria.We of course are looking at points discrete where we might be providing additional resources to the Iraqi Security Forces where it would be strategically significant.Potentially,for example,an assault on Mosul,but I would be hesitant to make that permanent because we want them to do it independently.
If Iraq fails,added Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter,we will still try to enable local ground forces if they are willing to partner with us,but there wouldn't be a unified state.If Baghdad falls-I don't see that particular scenario as very likely,because Prime Minister Abadi has surrounded Baghdad with what remains,and the fact that they are Shia will make them fight fiercely.
What would make us more kinetic?asked GEN Dempsey:
1.A credible threat to the homeland.
2.A credible threat to our forces.
For example,I believe another 9-11 probably would draw us in.
Could we go in there and do a better job against ISIL?Absolutely,but we'd be back there two years from now.I would not recommend that we put US forces in harm's way simply to stiffen the spine of Iraqi Security Forces.If the threat from ISIL doesn't stiffen them,we won't,either.If the ISF go on the offensive with a strategic target,I would certainly go to the Secretary of Defense and have that conversation of how to increase their effectiveness,but not just to stiffen their spines,GEN Dempsey told the House Armed Services Committee.

Hagel and Dempsey on US Strategy in Iraq

There are limited signs of progress in Iraq three months after the air campaign began,US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told the House Armed Services Committee last week.The advance by ISIL in parts of Iraq has stalled,and in some cases been reversed,by Iraqi,Kurdish and tribal forces supported by US-led coalition air strikes.More than 130 of the more than 800 strikes since 8 August have been by coalition partners,including Canada,which made its first sorties last week.The coalition consists of 12 nations.*
Some 1500 new US troops supplementing the 1400 already in Iraq will work out of Joint Operations Centers in Baghdad and Irbil,as well as four new training centers in North,West and Central Iraq.*
The US is certainly considering putting boots on the ground to advise and call in airstrikes on the frontlines,Joint Chiefs Chairman General Martin Dempsey added.The Iraqi trops are doing a better job,but there are places that will be beyond them,such as Mosul and the Syrian border.We're considering US forces accompanying Iraqi troops.In Syria,our actions against ISIL are focused on shaping the dynamic in Iraq,which remains the priority of our counter-ISIL strategy.*
We are sober about the challenges we face as ISIL exploits the complicated,long-running Syrian conflict,Secretary Hagel explained to the Members of Congress.

Militants Repulse Iraqi Army-but US Navy aircraft help retake dam

Islamic State militants held their position in the Iraqi city of Tikrit against an attempt to recapature it Tuesday by the Iraqi army,Iraqi officers told the Reuters news agency.Tikrit was the hometown of the late Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.The Iraqi forces were checked by heavy fires from mortars and machine guns south of Tikrit,and land mines and snipers west of town.*
Despite the Iraqi effort,the militants continued to patrol the streets of Tikrit,maintaining their dominance.Over the weekend,however,US Navy F/A-18 fighter jets and Predator drones carried out 35 sorties on the militants holding the Mosul Dam area north of Mosul city,striking 90 targets ranging from military vehicles and checkpoints,to firing positions.This air support for Kurdish special operations forces and Iraqi troops resulted in the recapture of the strategically vital dam from the militants,who nonetheless continue to firmly grasp Mosul itself.The dam supplies water and hydroelectric power to a vast portion of the country,including the capital Baghdad.*
Analysts believe that US air power alone cannot defeat the militants,and some US combat troops will eventually be needed to complete the task.It's a view shared by Congressman Peter King,R-NY,member of the House Homeland Security Committee.I don't think we need large amounts,he said.I think by arming the Kurds and by working with the Iraqi army,by having leadership in there,that we can do it,and also massive use of our air power-all of that together,I believe,is sufficient without any large number of ground troops at all.*
There are roughly 1,000 US troops currently serving in Iraq,but they are in support roles such as advising,security and intelligence,rather than offensive combat operations.

Big Security Push:Hundreds More US Troops Sent To Iraq

Two hundred more US troops have arrived in Iraq,in addition to the 180 Special Operations Forces advisors already there.These new 200 will assist with securing the US embassy in Baghdad,as well as Baghdad International Airport and roads connecting them.The embassy would be a prime target for ISIL militants,should they get much closer to Baghdad.The militants have long-range artillery now,which they have captured.
A further 100 US troops are on the way from the Middle East,where they have been on standby,to help with security and logistics.The total number of US troops now in Iraq is said to be about 750.
South of Baghdad lie the country's main oil fields,which must also be considered prime targets of the ISIL militants.
The new US troops are bringing more helicopters and drones for airfield and travel route security,the Pentagon said.A major concern is evacuating the thousands of American civilians who remain in Iraq,in the event of a militant push into the capital city.

Defense Secretary Warns Iran

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta issued a warning to Iran and others not to miscalculate over the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.For Iran and anybody else who has any other ideas,let me make clear that the United States maintains 40,000 troops in that region;23,000 in Kuwait,and numbers of others in countries throughout that region,Mr.Panetta stated while on an Asian trip last week.
Almost all U.S. forces will be withdrawn out of Iraq by 31 December on orders by President Obama.The only exceptions will be a small cadre of U.S. Marines who guard the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad-the largest U.S. Embassy in the world-as well as a small number to help with arms transactions with Iraq.
As well as maintaining those U.S. troops currently stationed in the Persian Gulf region outside of Iraq,the Pentagon is reportedly considering transferring some of the soldiers now in Iraq to neighboring Kuwait,The New York Times ascertained.The U.S. Navy may also keep more warships in the region.A Pentagon spokesman said they're going through a range of options and no decisions have been made.
The vacuum created by U.S. withdrawal from Iraq is a growing concern for America's Sunni Muslim Persian Gulf allies,who are wary of more Iranian Shiite Muslim influence in the region.

Training Base Attacked in Baghdad

Five U.S. troops died in a rocket attack by Shiite miltiamen in Baghdad on Monday,and five more were wounded.The truck-mounted rockets were fired at joint U.S.-Iraqi Forward Operating Base Loyalty,near the Baghdad neighborhood of Sadr City.The U.S. forces were training Iraqi national police officers at the base.
About 4500 U.S. troops have died in the Iraq War.So far this year,30 U.S. troops have been killed,which is roughly on pace with last year's toll.
At the height of the conflict in 2007,961 Americans were killed.Monday's attack was the worst single incident for U.S. forces in Iraq in two years,however,and another U.S. soldier died on Wednesday in southern Iraq.The Shiite militias often target Iraqi government compounds and hospitals,but attacking U.S. troops definitively demonstrates their competence and courage,from their point of view,as well as helps ensure that the U.S. does not extend its mission in Iraq beyond 31 December,in their opinion.
Iraq's government realistically has until the end of October to request that U.S. troops continue their advise,train and assist role in Iraq.Since it takes about two months for the 46,000 remaining Americans to withdraw,a later request would effectively be too late,the withdrawal having already begun by 31 October.
U.S. officials such as Admiral Michael Mullen,outgoing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,made it clear that the U.S. is open to staying on in its supportive mission,Operation New Dawn.
Iraq has about 650,000 personnel in the army and national police,but they need instruction and backup in intelligence,logisitics,maintenance,combined arms operations,and border and airspace protection.

Al-Qaida Figure Killed

U.S. troops killed a top al-Qaida militant and his associate,and detained five others,during a Baghdad raid on 11 November.The raid in the Mansour neighborhood resulted in the death of Hajji Hammadi,who was involved in the capture and execution of Army Reserve Staff Sargent Matt Maupin,20,in 2004,as well as the deaths of three U.S. Marines in a 26 June,2008 attack in Anbar province,Iraq.Also killed in the June attack were more than 20 Iraqis and two interpreters.Al-Qaida in Iraq has suffered numerous setbacks this year as the Iraqi people turned against it and helped U.S. forces combat the Islamic militants.