Closing Ranks:NATO Responds as Russia Violates Treaty

At the end of a NATO Foreign Ministerial in Brussels,Belgium that was attended by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo,on 4 December 2018,NATO Allies certified that Russia is in a substantive breach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg:
All Allies have concluded that Russia has developed and fielded a new ground-launched cruise missile system-the SSC-8,also known as the 9M729.Allies agree that the missile system violates the INF Treaty and poses significant security risks to Euro-Atlantic security.And they agree that Russia is therefore in material breach of its obligations under the INF Treaty.*
This is really serious,because,of course,all missiles are dangerous,but these missiles are particularly dangerous because they are hard to detect;they are mobile;they are nuclear capable.*
Despite the US and others raising the matter with Russia over 30 times,Russia has continued to develop and deploy the forbidden missiles,eroding effective arms control and undernining the security of the NATO Allies.*
Mr.Stoltenberg continued:
This is part of Russia's pattern of behaviour,intended to weaken the overall Euro-Atlantic security architecture.There are no new US missiles in Europe;but there are new Russian missiles in Europe.*
In conclusion,Mr.Stoltenberg warned:
Russia now has a last chance to come back into compliance with the INF Treaty,but we must also start to prepare for a world without the treaty.*
The US has given Russia 60 days to come back into compliance with the INF Treaty.*
Analysis:NATO has to be very watchful as it is not sure what the Putin regime will do next in Ukraine;perhaps Russia will take covert actions that will be used to justify another land grab.NATO finds itself in a position that approaches the danger at the height of the Cold War-at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis,for example.A conflict with Russia and/or China could necessitate a reinstatement of conscription in the US.It could mean a war of the order not seen since Vietnam-or even Korea.*
The Chief of Staff US Army,GEN Mark Milley,has been nominated by US President Donald Trump to be the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,the senior commander in the US military.GEN Milley has said of Putin's Russia that:
I see Russia as aggressive,not just assertive.They attacked Georgia (in 2008);they illegally seized Crimea (2014);they have attacked Ukraine (2014-present)...all those countries were free and independent and have been sovereign nations now for a quarter of a century,since the fall of the Berlin Wall.I would say,Russia's recent behaviour is adversarial to the interests of the United States.

Russia Challenges NATO by Deploying New Missile,Violating Treaty

According to Administration officials who spoke anonymously to The New York Times,Russia has now deployed a new land-based intermediate range cruise missile in clear violation of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.The INF Treaty was signed by President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987.US intelligence has known about Russian testing of such a weapon since 2008 and the Obama administration formally accused Moscow of violating the INF Treaty by testing the missile in 2014.*
Known as the SSC-8 by the Pentagon,the missiles are seen as a direct threat to Europe.Russia has two battalions of the SSC-8.One of them is based at the Russian missile test range at Kapustin Yar;while the other was moved from there in December to an undisclosed location in Russia.Each battalion consists of four missile launchers and more than four missiles,intelligence analysts believe.The short range nuclear-tipped ballistic missile Iskander-M uses a similar type of launcher,but is not itself in violation of a treaty.The Pentagon has drawn up options to respond to the SSC-8 with,such as beefing up European missile defences or developing new US air or sea-based cruise missiles.*
The INF Treaty bans US and Russian missiles that can travel 300-3400 miles.It also forbids the production of launchers for such missiles.*
According to former US Defense Secretary and CIA Director Robert Gates,appearing before Congress in 1985,Soviet deployment of cruise missiles provides them with new multidirectional capabilities against US targets.*
At a 1 December 2015 Congressional hearing,Brian P. McKeon,Principal Undersecretary of Defense for Policy,said that the Joint Staff assessment tells us that the deployment of such a system by the Russian Federation would increase the risk to our allies and be an indirect threat to the US...the Administration determined that we need to consider Russian actions with respect to the INF Treaty in the context of its overall aggressive and bellicose behaviour that flouts international legal norms and destabilises the European security order.Russia is not violating the INF Treaty in isolation from it overall aggressive behaviour.*
Speaking at the same 2015 hearing,Rose Gottemoeller,who was then Undersecretary of Arms Control and International Security,and is now Deputy Secretary General of NATO,saidwe have made it very clear that this is not a technicality,a one-off event,or a case of mistaken identity,but a serious violation of one of the most basic obligations under the INF Treaty.Russian officials have denied violating the Treaty and told us the issue was closed.We do not accept this response.*