Arctic Edge 20:Preparing North America for Advanced Threats

On 13 February 2020,General Terrence J. O'Shaughnessy,US Air Force,commander of US NORTHCOM and NORAD,read a statement before the Senate Armed Services Committee.It was a chilling account of what our totalitarian adversaries have been doing recently to degrade American power and leadership in the 21st century:
However,our key adversaries watched and learned,invested in capabilities to offset our strengths while exploiting our weaknesses,and have demonstrated patterns of behavior that indicate they currently have the capability,capacity,and intent to hold our homeland at significant risk below the threshold of nuclear war.This is emboldening competitors and adversaries to challenge us at home,holding at risk our people,our critical infrastructure,and our ability to project power forward.
The threats facing our nation are real and significant.The Arctic is no longer a fortress wall,our oceans are no longer protective moats;they are now avenues of approach for advanced conventional weapons and the platforms that carry them.Our adversaries' capability to directly attack the homeland has leapt forward,and they are engaged in concerted efforts to weaken our national technological,economic,and strategic advantage.*
The strategic threat to the homeland has entered a new era.Key adversaries Russia and China have deployed and continue to advance a range of capabilities with nuclear,conventional,and cyberspace weapons,believing it to be an effective means of offsetting Western military advantages and limiting our options in a crisis.*
Hence the upcoming NORAD/NORTHCOM Exercise Arctic Edge 20 could not be more welcome than it is now.This biannual,bi-national joint training exercise with the Canadian Armed Forces from 24 February-6 March 2020 will range across Alaska,providing high quality and effective training in the extreme cold-weather conditions found in the Arctic,a press release stated.AE 20 will be the largest joint exercise to be staged in Alaska this year.About 1,000 US personnel from all the Armed Forces will participate.NORAD and NORTHCOM will contribute complimentary,multi-domain capabilities toward the defence of the US and Canada.
What is more,AE 20 will be linked to the National Guard's Arctic Eagle exercise and the US Navy's Ice Exercise (ICEX),the press release stated.All these drills will take place from February-March 2020 in order to prepare Arctic-capable forces across all domains of warfighting.Members of the Canadian Joint Operations Command are expected to participate in the preparation and testing of the joint military forces' ability to operate tactically in the extreme and austere Arctic environments.

Naval Strategy:U.S. 2nd Fleet One Year On

On 24 August 2019 the U.S. 2nd Fleet marked the 1st anniversary of its Establishment Ceremony,which took place aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) at Norfolk,Virginia.The Fleet was given the following Mission:
To develop and employ maritime forces ready to fight across multiple domains in the Atlantic and Arctic in order to ensure access,deter aggression,and defend U.S.,allied and partner interests.*
Writing for the Business Insider website,the commander of U.S. 2nd Fleet and NATO Joint Force Command Norfolk,VADM Andrew Lewis,said that:
The last time 2nd Fleet existed,the world looked very different than it does now:Today maritime superiority,vital to our national security,has been placed at risk by resurgent powers,namely Russia and China,seeking to supplant the US as the partner of choice around the world.The 2nd Fleet of today has redirected its strategic focus from mainly training units to deploy to regional conflicts in the Middle East to operating high-end naval forces and developing tactics to deter potential conflicts,to include near-peer adversaries in the North Atlantic and Arctic.*
We must be present in contested spaces-and virtual presence is not true presence.US 2nd Fleet is focused on the waters from the East Coast to the Arctic,Norway,and approaches of the Baltic and Azores.*
VADM Lewis continued:
Russia considers itself THE great power in the Arctic,and China is certainly interested in the hydrocarbon and fish available in those waters.If we do not get into the Arctic with a measured and deliberate approach,the area is destined for conflict.*
The greatest challenge I have faced is disrupting the sense of normalcy established during years of fighting FROM the sea,rather than fighting UPON the sea.We need to take a close look at the assets we have and ensure we are employing them appropriately and fighting as fleets rather than task groups or units.*
We are building US 2nd Fleet to be the market disrupter that changes the way we fight as a fleet-as a coalition-and in doing so,we will be ready to fight.*

US,Danish Warships Exercise in the Arctic - revised

A US Navy and Royal Danish Navy warship have held drills near the Danish possession of Greenland,the largest island in the world.The PASSEX,or passing exercise,was conducted by the USS Gravely (DDG 107),an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer,and HDMS Absalon (L16),an Absalon-class command and support ship.At one point,a Royal Danish Navy Sikorsky MH-60R Seahawk helicopter touched down aft on the Gravely.*
A PASSEX is a series of drills by two navies that ensures their ability to communicate and cooperate closely during a crisis.These may include close manoeuvres;flag-hoist drills;flashing light drills;and semaphore drills;as well as electronic communications and target acquisition drills.*
The USS Gravely has been conducting Arctic operations during an eight-month deployment.According to CDR Michael O'Reilly,commanding officer:
The exercise was a unique opportunity for Gravely to conduct training with the Danish navy and demonstrate interoperability in strategically important waters.*
Later in the deployment,crew members of the Gravely qualified on a machine gun while plying the Arctic waters.*

Canadian Officer Joins U.S. 2nd Fleet Staff

RADM Steven Waddell,Royal Canadian Navy,has joined the staff of the new U.S. 2nd Fleet as Vice Commander.RADM Waddell was most recently Director of Naval Strategic Readiness for the RCN.VADM Andrew Lewis ,Commander U.S. 2nd Fleet and NATO Joint Force Command Norfolk,welcomed RADM Waddell,who is the first foreign national officer on the 2nd Fleet staff, to his new post.*
U.S. 2nd Fleet was legislatively re-established on 1 July 2018 in the wake of Russian aggression in Eastern Europe,including its invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014,where it illegally annexed Crimea and wages hybrid warfare in Eastern Ukraine.It is also a response to the growing strategic and commercial importance of the Arctic.*
Speaking at a press conference in Norfolk,Virginia,VADM Lewis said that:
the 2nd Fleet has the capability to command and control forces assigned in high end maritime operations as it is expected of any other numbered fleet.*

Shop Talk:Read About the Arctic Challenge Exercise 2019

Please read my post on my Wall Street Workbook blog:
Air Wargames:Arctic Challenge Exercise 2019
It covers an important NORDEFCO/NATO exercise coming up soon.http://wallstreetworkbook.blogspot.com
http://wallstreetworkbook.blogspot.com

Coast Guard and Navy Confront Arctic Challenges

In light of increasing competition in an Arctic Region undergoing environmental change, the US Coast Guard and Navy are determined to up their capability in the austere area.The Coast Guard has just published its Arctic Strategic Outlook:
Actions by strategic competitors will challenge the long-standing norms that have made the Arctic an area of peace and low tension.The institutions contributing to a conflict-free Arctic will face new challenges requiring active and committed American leadership.*
While Russia has been refurbishing military bases above the Arctic Circle,China has sent warships on patrol near Alaska and says it is a near-Arctic state.It also aspires to establish a Polar Silk Road to further its commercial and strategic profile.*
The US Coast Guard goes on to promise:
The Service will make integrated operations with joint service, interagency and allied partners a critical element of current and future strategic and operations plans.*
Congress has just appropriated 655 million dollars to start work on the first of up to six Polar Security Cutters,a new class of cutter with the size, strength and electrical capacity to support cruise missile emplacement while breaking ice.*
In its analysis, the Coast Guard found that:
A key element of the strategies of our competitors is to engage in activities that weaken the international order that underpins a free and open maritime domain.They do so under a cloud of ambiguity that makes it difficult to mount an effective or timely response to such activities.*
According to the US Navy in its Arctic Roadmap for 2014 to 2030:
The Navy and Coast Guard have a decades-long history of cooperation and collaboration... The combined efforts of the Navy and the Coast Guard in the Arctic Ocean will reflect this historic relationship.The Coast Guard and the Navy are committed to ensuring safe, secure and environmentally responsible maritime activity in Arctic Ocean waters and to promoting our other national interests in the region.*
The Navy explains that:
The Navy's submarine fleet has decades of experience performing missions and exercises under the sea ice.On the other hand, the Navy's surface and air forces have limited operational experience in the region.The Navy will need to periodically evaluate preparedness for operations and conduct training exercises in harsh conditions as changes occur over time in order to assure the Navy can operate in a more accessible Arctic Ocean.
The Navy will protect American sovereign rights and jurisdiction through flexible, periodic presence, and contribute to homeland defense in conjunction with the Joint Force.The Navy will ensure it remains prepared to operate in the Arctic Region to​ counter any threat that may arise.
The Navy will continue to operate in the Arctic Region and be ready to conduct maritime patrol operations and maritime interception operations, and support Coast Guard operations as required.
The Navy's unique capabilities allow it to rapidly and effectively deploy and sustain forces in and from multiple dispersed locations to respond to crises, contribute to deterrence, and to enhance regional stability.
During shoulder​ seasons, the Navy may employ ice strengthened Military Sealift Command (MSC) ships to conduct Navy missions.
By 2030, the Navy will have the necessary training and personnel to respond to contingencies and emergencies affecting national security... The Navy will work to mitigate the gaps and seams and transition its Arctic Ocean operations from a capability to provide periodic presence to a capability to operate deliberately for sustained​ periods when needed.

Russia in the Arctic - a cause for concern?

Little Diomede Island is the last US possession before entering Russian territory just a few miles away.If the Eskimos that live there venture too close to Russia,Russian border guards in watchtowers yell at them or even fire warning shots.There are no US troops on Little Diomede.The Eskimos help keep an eye on Russia with a spotting scope.US Air Force fighter jets from Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson,Alaska intercept any Russian aircraft approaching US airspace.*
There's not an enormous amount of concern in the US military about what Russia is doing on the ground in the Arctic,says Stephen Lee Myers,New York Times correspondent.The US Coast Guard is strained by the resources it has to deploy in the Arctic.From the NATO perspective,it's not necessarily provocative.What is,is Russia's aggressive air patrolling along the Arctic and Baltic.It's an era of testing and provocation.*
Marlene LaRuelle of George Washington University says the Russian FSB Arctic Brigade is a Coast Guard of the border.It would be a very modest thing with 50-60 people up there for search and rescue if anything happened.What's going on is more domestic,managing crisis more than anything else.
Apart from Murmansk,the focus for Russia is primarily domestic security.Russia's not just concerned with oil and gas,but mineral extraction as well to support Arctic cities.Our only infrastructure in the Arctic is the US Coast Guard seasonal presence.We don't have the aspirational view that the Russians do.*
We're starting to see the Russian facilities are dual use,but we don't know what use.We need to get our arms around it.We're starting to see warning signs,cautioned Heather Conley of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.*
According to Russia's official RIA Novosti news agency,former Soviet bases in the Arctic are being reactivated in response to renewed NATO interest in the region.The airstrip in Novaya Zembla can now accommodate fighters and part of the North Fleet is establishing quarters there.A new far north military group of two brigades totaling 6,000 soldiers will be deployed in Murmansk and then the Yamal-Nenets autonomous region.Radar and ground guidance systems are planned for Franz Josef Land in Novaya Zemlya,Wrangel Island and Cape Schmidt.The FSB is increasing the number of border guards on Russia's northern perimeter.*

Threats To North America:US Northcom and NORAD Commander

Admiral William Gortney,US Navy,commander US Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command,appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday,12 March,to submit the Command's fiscal 2016 budget request.Included with the request was an assessment of current and future threats to the continent.ADM Gortney said what is most concerning to him is the seams that exist between Northcom,Southern Command and Pacific Command;between US interagency partners and the combatant commands;between the US and partner nations;and seams within those nations.In these seams,people are moving drugs and money.They're moving products for profit through the seams.We need to close these seams,because if someone wants to do something that will cause great damage to the nation,that is where they will come.*
2.Homegrown violent extremists are using an effective and sophisticated social media campaign to stir up distrust and incite harm to American citizens.*
3.A cyber attack could directly affect critical infrastructure that I rely on to defend the nation,and that we rely on for our nation to operate.I see that as a significant threat.A cyber attack in Ottawa would take out the Northeast quadrant of our air defence sector.It would effectively be a mission kill.So it would not only affect my abiity to do my mission;more importantly,we as a nation rely on this same infrastructure to operate-whether it's banking,rail,aviation,power or movement of water.All of these things have critical infrastructure that we must have,and they need to be hardened against an adversary.Northcom is responsible for defending known networks and helping lead federal agencies in the aftermath of a cyber attack.
4.Russian heavy bombers flew more out of area patrols in 2014 than in any year since the Cold War.We have also witnessed improved interoperability between Russian long-range aviation and other elements of the Russian military,including air and maritime intelligence collection platforms positioned to monitor NORAD responses.Such patrols serve a training function for Russian air crews,but some are clearly intended to underscore Moscow's global reach and communicate displeasure with Western policies,especially those involving Ukraine.Russia is also progressing toward its gosl of developing long-range,conventionally armed cruise missiles with increasing stand-off launch distances on its heavy bombers,submarines and surface combatants.Should these trends continue,NORAD will face increased risk in our ability to defend North America against Russian air,maritime and cruise missile threats.
5.North Korea has successfully test-detonated three nuclear devices,and through its space program has demonstrated many of the technologies required for an ICBM that could target the continental United States.North Korean military parades have showcased the new KN08 road-mobile ICBM.When deployed,the system will complicate the US ability to provide warning and defend against an attack.
6.Iran has likewise committed considerable resources to enhancing its ballistic missile capabilities,and has already placed another satellite into orbit this year,usinga new booster that could serve as a demonstrator for ICBM technologies.
7.Sequestration poses the likeliest and most dangerous threat.It leads to a hollow force,slowing development of the US technological advantage that makes it possible to outpace future threats.It also affects missile defence,putting on hold the long-range discrimination radar;improvements to the advanced kill vehicle;and the multi-object kill vehicle of the US Ballistic Missile Defense System.It would hinder the United States' ability to outpace the growing proliferation of ballistic missiles.
7.The Arctic requires advocacy and partnerships from within and outside the Northcom area of responsibility as the region grows in importance to our national security over the next few decades.

Nature Note:Canadian Author Supports More Wilderness in ANWR

President Barack Obama is seeking to expand wilderness protection in ANWR,the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,making it off-limits to oil drilling.According to Canadian author Edward Struzik,whose book "Future Arctic" has just been published,it's the same old story.The difference now is,we may be coming to the end of frontier oil and gas.The costs of drilling have risen dramatically,and the reserves just aren't big enough.Obama has taken an insurance policy for the future,to preserve the caribou and subsistence resource,Mr.Struzik told talk show host Diane Rehm.
ANWR is thought to hold at least 10 billion barrels of oil,but it's the cost and risk of getting that oil out.We should take the more cautious approach and protect caribou.I think this is a prudent decision by the President.It's a visionary thing.He's the first Western leader to acknowledge the Arctic is changing and we need to do something about it.The important fact is,the Coastal Plain of ANWR is an important calving ground for the caribou.Restrictions placed on hunters and no development whatsoever on the Coastal Plain-these factors have resulted in the rebound of the Porcupine caribou herd.
There's a great state interest here.If we could learn from the past,the state should have put something in the bank.Nobody seems to learn the lesson that you've got to have an insurance policy.Alaska has motored on as if oil will always sustain their economy.Prudhoe Bay is drying up.In Canada,the Alberta government is now in serious trouble.They're thinking about cutting back on education and health care-and maybe even instituting a sales tax.
Expanded wilderness designation-such would secure the future fate of polar bears,caribou and the food supply of native Alaskans,Mr.Struzik insisted.*
The status of ANWR has been debated since the Reagan administration.Now the Interior Department's Comprehensive Conservation Plan for the refuge is in a 30 day public review period,at the end of which a Record of Decision will be issued and implementation of the Plan can begin.Besides setting aside three new wilderness areas in ANWR,the Plan calls for placing two of the refuge's rivers in the National Wild and Scenic Rivers program.The Plan is bitterly opposed by many Alaskans,who feel slighted by the federal government.They do not have the votes in Congress to stop the wilderness protection from taking effect,however-at least until and unless the political landscape in Washington changes even more than it already has.

USCGC Healy Underway in Arctic

One of the two functional icebreakers in the US inventory,USCGC Healy(WAGB-20)is on a four month deployment that includes three scientific missions.The first of the missions,HLY 1301,began on 29 July and ends on 15 August.This blog reviewed a number of AloftCon photos giving the view from the ship's bow.It has encountered open sea to moderate fractured ice,but nothing really substantial as far as ice goes.It visited a small harbour,then a pier where a white ship with two radomes was tied up.It also visited a more urbanised channel with a warehouse and two bridges in the background.The second and third cruises will be National Science Foundation missions.The entire package is called Arctic West Summer 2013 and ends in October.*The Healy is a platform for a broad range of research activities,with more than 4200 square feet of lab space;electronic sensor systems;oceanographic winches;and accomodations for up to 50 scientists.It also supports other Coast Guard missions,such as logistics;ship escort;search and rescue;environmental protection;and law enforcement.*According to the ship's Public Affairs Officer,ENS Rebecca Follmer,the current deployment began on 11 July after five months of intensive preservation and maintenance at Vigor shipyard,Seattle.In June,they had shakedown and sea trials,when the crew refreshed their sea skills and trained new crew members;conducted engineering tests;flight operations;small boat operations;and several drills.They bid farewell to departing crewmembers,wishing them fair winds and open leads,and welcomed new ones.*The first two weeks of July,they had loaded science equipment,including coring equipment from Oregon State University for the second mission;food stores;and general ship's supply;changed the oil in the engines;and completed several final repairs.Shortly after getting underway,the Healy conducted flight operations with a MH-65D helicopter from Air Station Port Angeles.The crew thoroughly cleaned the ship for two days and made way to their first stop of Kodiak,Alaska,ENS Follmer reported on 13 July.