NATO's High North:U.S. Arctic Strategy 2024,Part 2

The Arctic Strategy makes chilling reading:Strategic Environment - 1.The PRC includes the Arctic in its long-term planning and seeks to increase its influence and activities in the region.Though not an Arctic nation,the PRC is attempting to leverage changing dynamics in the Arctic to persue greater influence and access,take advantage of Arctic resources,and play a larger role in regional governance.The PRC seeks to bolster its operational expertise in the Arctic,where its presence,while limited,is increasing.The PRC operates three icebreakers:the Xue Long;Xue Long 2;and Zhong Shan Da Xue Ji Di-which enable the PRC's dual civilian/military research efforts in the Arctic.Over the course of the PRC's 13 Arctic research expeditions to date,the vessels have tested unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) and polar-capable fixed-wing aircraft,among other activities.People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels have also demonstrated the capability and intent to operate in and around the Arctic through exercises with the Russian Navy over the past several years.*Although the vast majority of the Arctic is under the jurisdiction of sovereign states,the PRC seeks to promote the Arctic Region as a "global commons" in order to shift Arctic governance in its favour.The PRC's 2018 Arctic Policy claims non-Arctic states should contribute to the region's "shared future for mankind" due to the Arctic's global significance.Its "Polar Silk Road" has been used to gain a footing in the Arctic,pursuing investments in infrastructure and natural resources,including in the territory of NATO Allies.2.Russian activities in the Arctic:The Arctic plays a significant role in Russia's security and economic calculations.The importance is revealed in Russian strategic documents,including Russia's 2023 Foreign Policy Concept,which raises the Arctic to Russia's second priority region after Russia's "near abroad."Russia boasts the largest Arctic territory and the most developed military presence of all the Arctic nations.Of concern,Russia's Arctic capabilities have the potential to hold the U.S. homeland,as well as Allied Partner territory,at risk.*The Kola Peninsula is home to Russia's Northern Fleet and important strategic nuclear forces,specifically its submarine-launched ballistic missile forces.Russia continues to invest heavily in new military infrastructure and refurbishing Soviet-era installations in the Arctic.Despite some attrition of Russia's conventional land forces due to losses in Ukraine,its strategic,air and maritime forces remain intact.Further,Russia has demonstrated the ability to reconstitute and reorganise its conventional ground forces,which illuminates the potential for future improved readiness and combat expertise in the Arctic.*In addition to nuclear,conventional and special operations threats,Russia seeks to carry out lower-level destabilisation activities against the United States and our Allies,including through Global Positioning System jamming and military flights that are conducted in an unprofessional manner inconsistent with international law and custom.Russia also has a clear avenue of approach to the U.S. homeland through the Arctic,and could use its Arctic-based capabilities to threaten the ability of the United States to project power both to Europe and the Indo-Pacific Region,constraining our ability to respond to crises.Furthermore,Russia's maritime infrastructure could allow it to enforce illegal and excessive claims along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) between the Bering Strait and the Kara Strait.Russia claims the right to regulate Arctic waters along the NSR in excess of the authority permitted under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS),placing excessive requirements on foreign vessels out of compliance with Russian regulations.3.PRC-Russian Collaboration:Increasingly,the PRC and Russia are collaborating in the Arctic across multiple instruments of national power.While significant areas of disagreement between the PRC and Russia remain,their growing alignment in the region is of concern,and the DOD coninues to monitor this cooperation...PRC-Russia military cooperation,including joint military exercises in the Arctic,continues to increase.In 2022 and 2023,PLAN and Russian Navy ships operated together in international waters off the coast of Alaska;and the Chinese Coast Guard and Russian Federal Security Service signed a memorandum of understanding on maritime law enforcement.These activities could open the door to future PRC presence in the Arctic and the NSR.