Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service:Russia Prepares for Prolonged Conflict with Ukraine and Confrontation with the West

Kaupo Rosin is Director General,Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.The most incisive chapter of the report "International Security and Estonia 2024" by the EFIS is entitled "Adapting Russia's Armed Forces For Prolonged Conflict":The objectives of Russia's military reform reflect the leadership's vision of the resources required for the conflict with Ukraine and prolonged confrontation with the West.Russia's goal is to achieve military dominance in the Baltic Sea Region.For Estonia,Russia's military reform entails a significant increase in Russia's forces near the Estonian border in coming years.Increasing the personnel and adding new units to the armed forces is the primary purpose of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu's military reform.Russia aims to increase its military personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million Soldiers by 2026;restructure 12 land and naval brigades into divisions;and create dozens of new divisions in the land,air and naval forces,as well as in the airborne troops.The formation of many of these units has already begun,but the main challenge is their shortfall of contracted service members and officers,which develop the unit formation process.*Although Russia plans to develop all strategic directions,the highest priority is in the Western strategic direction and Ukraine.The Kremlin is preparing for a prolonged conflict with Ukraine,necessitating additional armies and army corps (3rd and 40th Army Corps,18th Army and 25th Army,for which dozens of new manoeuvre,combat support and combat service units are being formed).*The second priority region is the Finnish direction,where Russia's military posture was minimal until Finland's recent accession to NATO.Russia plans to create the 4th Army Corps,likely based in Petrozavordsk,to address this.This formation will probably be built around at least two or three manoeuvre units,with around a dozen fire support and combat support units.*The growth of Russian military capabilities in the Estonian vacinity,in Leningrad and Pskov districts,primarily results from the potential transformation of existing units into divisions.According to one possible scenario,the personnel strength of Russian land forces and airborne troops in the Estonian direction may nearly double from approximately 19,000 forces from before 24 February 2022 (anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine).The extent to which these units attain combat strength depends on Russia's ability to recruit,train,and retain contracted service members.The success and timeline of Russia's military reform will be largely determined by the course of the war in Ukraine.If Russia manages to implement the reform,NATO could face a Soviet-style mass army in the next decade.This army is likely to be technologically inferior to the NATO Allies' defence forces in most areas,except for electronic warfare and long-range strike capabilities.However,its military potential would be significant,owing to its size,fire-power (including artillery power and inexpensive attack drones),combat experience and reserves.Defending against a possible conventional attack from such an army would require Allied defence forces and defence industries to be significantly more prepared,capable,and better stocked with ammunition than they currently are.*In summary,Russia's plan to increase its military forces is ambitious,especially considering the short timelines and Russia's economic and demographic situation.However,it is also a threat to Europe and NATO,contributing to Russia's aggressive posture,military potential,and growing militarisation reinforcing Russia's apparent path of a long-term confrontation with the West.*Russia is attempting to tilt Moldova back into its orbit by influencing the electoral process of 2024-2025.For its part,Moldova has banned major Russian propaganda channels;shut down numerous local Internet portals disseminating Russia's war propaganda;and decisively resisted political parties directly controlled and funded by Russia.Indeed,in the summer of 2023,Moldovan authorities expelled most Russian Embassy diplomats,after identifying some of them as intelligence operatives.*According to the Financial Times news outlet,the NATO Joint Support and Enabling Command in Ulm,South Germany is devising plans for how NATO forces will deploy across Europe and be sustained and reinforced in the event of a war with Russia.In this process,lessons learned from the ongoing Steadfast Defender 24 exercise,which simulates a large-scale conflcit with an adversary from the East,will be utilised.The scenario for the drills is a Russian attack on Alliance territory.*Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna said NATO may only have three-four years before the Kremlin mounts a test for NATO:But we must understand the Russian war machine has started in the full scale,the capabilities for the production and the mentality as well,because Putin is controlling everything now.*For his part,German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius warns the test could come in the next decade,in five-eight years.