Hybrid Threat:Poland Reacts as Wagner Group Mercenaries Approach NATO Chokepoint

On 29 July 2023,Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said his government had received information that Wagner Group mercenaries were nearing Grodno,Belarus close to the Suwalki Gap,a part of Northeast Poland regarded as a NATO chokepoint,since it connects Belarus with Russia's Kalilingrad Oblast exclave.In a conflict with NATO,Russia and Belarus could seize the sparsely populated area,thus cutting off land access to the three NATO member Baltic States of Lithuania,Latvia and Estonia.Over a hundred Wagner Group mercenaries were reported to be gathering in the area.*Prime Minister Morawiecki feels it is another effort to destabilise the Polish border,after Belarus had sent waves of illegal refugees across the border in summer 2021,causing chaotic scenes.Said Mr.Morawiecki:They (Wagner Group mercenaries) will probably be disguised as Belarusian border guards and will help illegal immigrants to enter Polish territory,destabilising Poland;but they will also probably try to infiltrate Poland,pretending to be illegal immigrants,and this creates additional risks.*Recall that Russia invaded Ukraine for the first time in 2014 with men in unmarked green uniforms,the so-called little green men.So the Wagner Group could wage hybrid warfare against NATO Ally Poland on behalf of Putin and his crony,Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko.Grodno,Belarus is about 10 mi/16.09 km from the Polish border.Speaking at a press conference,Mr.Morawiecki said that:Now the situation is becoming even more dangerous.This is certainly a step towards a further hybrid attack on Polish territory.*Such an attack could activate NATO's Article V,which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all.Article V has only been activated once,following the 9-11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.The Suwalki Gap is the border between Poland and Lithuania.Lukashenko reportedly remarked to Putin that:The Wagner guys have been starting to stress us.They would like to go West,saying 'Let's go on a trip to Warsaw and Rzeszow.'"Wagner Group has been training Belarusian troops lately.So Poland has reinforced its border with troops and 500 police.Recent drills near the border have been seen by Poland as a provocation.Kaliningrad Oblast is heavily fortified with up to 30,000 Russian troops and heavy artillery.In 2019,there were Russian/Belarus drills near the Polish border.