Friday, August 2, 2019

NATO Responds to Demise of INF Treaty

On 2 August 2019,NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded to the demise of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) on account of Russia's development and deployment of the nuclear-capable SSC-8 missile at multiple locations within minutes of striking Europe.Speaking in a somber tone from NATO headquarters in Brussels,Mr.Stoltenberg said:
We have agreed a package of measures to ensure that NATO's deterrence and defence remains credible and effective;but we will not rush to implementation or make any rash moves.We will consider our options carefully.
We have decided to work on issues such as exercises;intelligence,surveillance and reconnaissance;air and missile defences;and conventional capabilities.We will also ensure that our nuclear deterrent remains safe,secure and effective.Some of these measures can be implemented quickly,and others will take time.Everything we do will be balanced,coordinated and defensive.*
The Russian missiles are part of a broader pattern,and NATO has already started to respond to that pattern of Russian behaviour...we have already started to invest in new,modern air and missile defence capabilities;Allies are investing more,spending more for the first time in many,many years-and a big proportion of this spending is actually being invested in new capabilities in air and missile defence.We have increased our presence in the Eastern part of the Alliance.We are buying new,modern fighter jets;we are increasing the readiness of our forces,so it is not as if NATO is not doing anything;but everything we have done is within the borders,the limitations of the INF Treaty.Today the INF Treaty ceased to exist.That's the big difference;but we will make sure that we find the right balance between being strong,providing credible deterrence and defence,but without overreacting or rushing to conclusions.*
Analysis:We can expect developments in each of the areas Mr.Stoltenberg mentioned,but not in a dramatic way.A US official says the Pentagon will,within a matter of weeks,be flight testing a new weapon that would have exceeded the INF limits;but it will not be deployable for years.Perhaps it is a system that can be carried by bombers or even advanced fighter aircraft.Another option that has been mentioned involves special drills or patrols by nuclear-capable aircraft near the Russian borders-more nuclear exercises than have previously been held.

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