Defence Leaders' Perspective on the Ukraine Crisis

On 28 January 2022,the Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin III,US Army retired,and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,General Mark Milley,US Army,briefed reporters at the Pentagon.The following is this blog's notes on their presentations. General Austin: Russia's buildup has progressed at a consistent and steady pace,supported by increased naval activity in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean.The forces they have assembled are capable of the seizure of cities and portions of territories.We remain focused on their use of disinformation and our commitment to national sovereignty,territiorial integrity and self-determination.We're unified against Russia's attempt to undermine our values,but conflict is not inevitable.Diplomacy is still possible.* We have supplied Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles;grenade-launchers;artillery;and small arms.Another shipment arrived today. The situation on Ukraine's borders is changing rapidly.We will continue to provide President Biden with options.We will continue to consult with our Allies.A move by Russia into Ukraine will result in the very opposite of what they say they don't want.There's no reason why this situation has to devolve into conflict.Whatever Putin decides,we will stand with our Allies and Partners.* General Milley: Ukraine has the right to be independent,as it has been since 1991.Russia guaranteed the sovereignty of Ukraine.We strongly encourage Russia to stand down.They have over 100,000 ground manoeuvre forces in place on Ukraine's borders,along with air,naval,Special Operations Forces,and logistics elements. Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe,with 44 million people.When its high water table freezes,it is ideal for the transit of tracked armoured vehicles.If war were to break out,the Ukrainian people will suffer immensely. Ukraine's combat capabilties have improved since Russia's 2014 invasion.There is a small contingent of US military advisors in Ukraine (Yavoriv),but they have no offensive capabilty.NATO,minus the US,has more than 130 brigades of ground manoeuvre forces;93 squadrons of high-end fighter aircraft;four aircraft carriers;and other surface combatants.The President has authorised us to reassure and reinforce our NATO Allies.* General Austin: We always consider the impact our troop movements will have on other leaders.If and when we do move in,the purpose is to reassure and support NATO.Russia's moves are an overt act of coercion against Ukraine.With north of 100,000 troops,that gives Putin a number of options.We can't predict what he will decide,but we remain concerned about the range of options he has. General Milley: They could move against Ukraine with ground manoeuvre forces and air power.They could launch ballistic missiles. General Austin: Their force posture far and away exceeds what we typically see for exercises.We're focused to provide the President with options to support and reinforce NATO. General Milley: Russia's force posture does feel different than anything we have seen in recent memory-since the end of the Cold War.* General Austin,when asked whether US troops might assist Americans in Ukraine to evacuate: Any troops that we deploy have multiple capabilities.The President has been clear about not using troops in Ukraine for combat operations,but we prepare for a range of activities and options.Whatever task the US military is called upon to accompish,we'll do our best to do it.The US military is prepared to do whatever we are directed to do.We have significant capabilties to protect and defend the homeland. Let me thank Canada and our other Allies for what they do to support Ukraine.We are in constant communication with Canada and the UK on support for Ukraine. I don't think this is about trusting Putin.This is about our Allies trusting us.Right now,we don't think Russia's final decisions have been made.* General Milley: All of Russia's forces are packaged together.If they were unleashed on Ukraine,there would be significant civilian casualties.It would be horrific.It would be terrible.* General Austin: There was no provocation that caused them to move those forces to the borders of Ukraine.*

The aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) of the US Navy controls the Mediterranean Sea - 23 January 2022

US,Netherlands Forces Put On Alert for NATO Call-Up

Some 8500 US troops have been notified today that they are on alert for call-up by NATO for the NATO Response Force (NRF) over the Ukraine crisis.NRF is a tripwire force of 40,000 multinational sea,air and land personnel,including Special Operations Forces.The Netherlands has also put its land forces and a Royal Netherlands Navy frigate on standby for this crisis response unit,which includes the 20,000 member Very High-Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF).The exact criteria for NRF activation have not been disclosed,yet Russia is being put on notice that this activation will happen if it reaches certain milestones.The decision to heighten the alert by Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin III,US Army retired is about getting the units,all of them based in the US,on heightened alert for short notice deployment to Europe.Some of the units must be able to deploy in as little as five days.No final decision to deploy has been reached yet,according to Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby,US Navy retired.It is entirely up to NATO,which is commanded by General Tod Wolters,US Air Force,the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR).The bulk of the troops are for the NRF,but some are for the VJTF.They include the combat credible units,the Brigade Combat Teams;aviation units;Intelligence,Surveillance and Reconnaisance;logistics,transportation,medical and engineering personnel. The US troops,a comprehensive package,are also available if other contingencies develop or the European security situation deteriorates.We have about 60,000 troops already in Europe.The call-up would primarily be to reinforce NATO'S Eastern Flank.Policy makers are working their way through the NRF activation criteria.Said Mr.Kirby: I can't rule out that there may be some deployment before an invasion.We've seen Vladimir Putin add to his military capability.We don't believe he's made that decision.He is increasing the military options available to him.* At the same time,Denmark has sent a frigate to the Baltic Sea Region and is also bulking up the NATO Air Policing Mission in Lithuania by providing four of its F-16 Fighting Falcons.* House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has requested a bi-partisan briefing on the alert for Congressional leaders.*

Bulletin:Thousands of US Troops May Be Deployed to Eastern Europe Shortly

Spending the weekend at Camp David,Maryland,US President Joseph R. Biden met with his national security team,some of them in person and others virtually,including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley,US Army.The President is considering sending up to 5,000 US troops to Eastern Europe shortly,in a move to bolster NATO deterrence of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,The New York Times reported.This would mark a change from the previous wait and see approach adopted by the administration. Some of the troops would come from the US,while others would be deployed from elsewhere in Europe.More warships and aircraft may also be moved into a deterrent posture.The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group is already in the European theatre (the Mediterranean Sea) and is scheduled to begin Exercise Neptune Strike 22 tomorrow (see this blog's previous post). In related news,the Department of State is ordering families of US Embassy in Ukraine staff to return to the United States,while non-essential Embassy staff are being given the option to return home,in light of the possibility of a Russian invasion.As well,the State Department is strongly advising US citizens not to travel to Ukraine because of the war threat.

As Ukraine Crisis Builds,Major Naval Drills Set To Begin in Europe

As Europe totters on the edge of an abyss fabricated by the Kremlin,naval forces of both Russia and NATO will soon begin exercising in the region.Russia is holding massive drills involving more than 140 warships and support vessels,50+ aircraft,1,000 pieces of military equipment,and 10,000 personnel,from January-February;while NATO,for its part,is staging Exercise Neptune Strike 22.The NATO drills were not on the list of official NATO exercises for 2022.So far,details about it are sketchy.All that is definitely known is that it begins on 24 January and concludes on 4 February,and that the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group with its four Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers;a guided missile cruiser;typically up to two nuclear-powered attack submarines with Tomahawk cruise missiles for power projection on land; and a Royal Netherlands Navy frigate are taking part.The carrier air wing includes several dozen Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets,which can carry armaments ranging up to the B61-12 tactical nuclear bomb.* Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby,US Navy retired,said the drills will: demonstrate NATO'S ability to integrate the high-end maritime strike capabilities of an aircraft carrier strike group to support the defence and deterrence of the Alliance...NATO Allies will participate in coordinated maritime manoeuvres;anti-submarine warfare training;and long-range strike training.* The Russian exercises will take place both in Russian seas and select World Oceans,including the Mediterranean,the Russian news agency TASS said,where the Truman CSG has been patrolling on orders of the Secretary of Defense,General Lloyd Austin III,US Army retired.* It is also known that NATO Ally Spain has dispatched a minesweeper and a frigate to the Mediterranean and the Black Seas in response to the Ukraine crisis;it may also send fighter aircraft to reinforce NATO Ally Bulgaria.France has offered to send troops to reinforce Romania.* Boeing (BA)

Will not pull troops from allied nations, says NATO Chief Jens Stoltenbe...

LauncherOne launches “Above the Clouds” - Eric Bippert,pilot and Flight Lieutenant Mathew "Stanny" Stannard,Royal Air Force Test Pilot - including a national security mission for the DoD Space Test Program of the Defense Innovation Unit