Defence Leaders' Perspective on the Ukraine Crisis

On 28 January 2022,the Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin III,US Army retired,and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,General Mark Milley,US Army,briefed reporters at the Pentagon.The following is this blog's notes on their presentations. General Austin: Russia's buildup has progressed at a consistent and steady pace,supported by increased naval activity in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean.The forces they have assembled are capable of the seizure of cities and portions of territories.We remain focused on their use of disinformation and our commitment to national sovereignty,territiorial integrity and self-determination.We're unified against Russia's attempt to undermine our values,but conflict is not inevitable.Diplomacy is still possible.* We have supplied Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles;grenade-launchers;artillery;and small arms.Another shipment arrived today. The situation on Ukraine's borders is changing rapidly.We will continue to provide President Biden with options.We will continue to consult with our Allies.A move by Russia into Ukraine will result in the very opposite of what they say they don't want.There's no reason why this situation has to devolve into conflict.Whatever Putin decides,we will stand with our Allies and Partners.* General Milley: Ukraine has the right to be independent,as it has been since 1991.Russia guaranteed the sovereignty of Ukraine.We strongly encourage Russia to stand down.They have over 100,000 ground manoeuvre forces in place on Ukraine's borders,along with air,naval,Special Operations Forces,and logistics elements. Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe,with 44 million people.When its high water table freezes,it is ideal for the transit of tracked armoured vehicles.If war were to break out,the Ukrainian people will suffer immensely. Ukraine's combat capabilties have improved since Russia's 2014 invasion.There is a small contingent of US military advisors in Ukraine (Yavoriv),but they have no offensive capabilty.NATO,minus the US,has more than 130 brigades of ground manoeuvre forces;93 squadrons of high-end fighter aircraft;four aircraft carriers;and other surface combatants.The President has authorised us to reassure and reinforce our NATO Allies.* General Austin: We always consider the impact our troop movements will have on other leaders.If and when we do move in,the purpose is to reassure and support NATO.Russia's moves are an overt act of coercion against Ukraine.With north of 100,000 troops,that gives Putin a number of options.We can't predict what he will decide,but we remain concerned about the range of options he has. General Milley: They could move against Ukraine with ground manoeuvre forces and air power.They could launch ballistic missiles. General Austin: Their force posture far and away exceeds what we typically see for exercises.We're focused to provide the President with options to support and reinforce NATO. General Milley: Russia's force posture does feel different than anything we have seen in recent memory-since the end of the Cold War.* General Austin,when asked whether US troops might assist Americans in Ukraine to evacuate: Any troops that we deploy have multiple capabilities.The President has been clear about not using troops in Ukraine for combat operations,but we prepare for a range of activities and options.Whatever task the US military is called upon to accompish,we'll do our best to do it.The US military is prepared to do whatever we are directed to do.We have significant capabilties to protect and defend the homeland. Let me thank Canada and our other Allies for what they do to support Ukraine.We are in constant communication with Canada and the UK on support for Ukraine. I don't think this is about trusting Putin.This is about our Allies trusting us.Right now,we don't think Russia's final decisions have been made.* General Milley: All of Russia's forces are packaged together.If they were unleashed on Ukraine,there would be significant civilian casualties.It would be horrific.It would be terrible.* General Austin: There was no provocation that caused them to move those forces to the borders of Ukraine.*